Increasing Livestock Consumption and Its Impact on Climate Change Mitigation Targets

Abstract

The goals of this research were to assess how global meat consumption rates could impact climate change mitigation targets and analyze where and in what form preventing increased consumption patterns will have the greatest affect. During the Paris climate change debates in 2015 (COP21), global leaders agreed to strive towards a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) that will keep global temperature rise below 2° Celsius from pre-industrial levels. This will require a reduction in emissions of 40-70% from 2010 levels by 2050. In 2010, livestock production alone accounted for 15% of the world’s total GHG emissions. By 2050, there will be an additional 2 billion people on the planet and forecasted livestock production efficiencies alone will not be sufficient to meet climate change mitigation targets. Consumption will have to decrease. Research was conducted in four primary phases: 1) Understanding recent consumption patterns by country, region, and meat type; 2) Forecasting future (2050) consumption patterns; 3) Determining greenhouse gas emissions associated with current (2010) and future (2050) consumption patterns; and 4) Exploring impacts to greenhouse gas emissions of several future behavioral change/prevention scenarios. Log transformed regression analyses indicated a strong relationship between per capita GDP and meat consumption, which enabled meat consumption to be forecasted to 2050 by region and meat type. With population and GDP growth, business-as-usual projections resulted in livestock related emissions increasing by 57% in 2050 (compared to 2010 levels). The future behavioral change/prevention scenarios explored fell into four primary categories: 1) Per capita meat consumption aligning with dietary guidelines in certain high-consuming regions; 2) A 50% decrease in per capita consumption in certain regions, while ensuring dietary guidelines are met in others; 3) A global shift away from beef consumption to poultry; and 4) Global behavioral change and prevention, while ensuring dietary guidelines are met in all regions. The best performing scenario examined a global equitable change and/or prevention in behavior that required a 50% reduction in per capita consumption, but ensured dietary guidelines were met (when needed) by allocating the delta to poultry consumption. This scenario resulted in a 91% reduction in forecasted 2050 emissions, but only a 22% reduction in emissions from 2010 levels. While this is a significant step in the right direction, it is not sufficient to meet climate change mitigation targets. Further research should explore similar meat consumption reductions combined with increases in other protein sources (such as plants, insects, and lab-grown meat) and the widespread adoption of efficient production practices