Transit-Oriented Development or Development-Oriented Transit: Measuring the Effect of Proximity to LA Metro Rail on Residential Construction

Abstract

The expansion of Los Angeles Metro’s rail network in recent decades presents a meaningful opportunity to understand how land use and transportation planning interact. This relationship is critically important to planning decisions about both land use policy and major transportation infrastructure investments. Using multivariate logistic regression on parcel-level data, I explore the factors that influence where and when transit-oriented development occurs across the region. By examining temporal components of these interactions, I determine how different project milestones—plan approval, groundbreaking, or service start dates—correspond with changes in the built environment. There is some evidence that residential development is more likely to occur on parcels near newly constructed rail transit at all project phases, with the most significant effect visible following the start of construction. However, when considering whether the development that takes place is at densities high enough to support transit use, the results are less conclusive. These dynamics provide useful information for planning practice about whether barriers to transit-oriented development exist in Greater Los Angeles, or alternatively, for evaluating choices related to rail rapid transit route selection.