The Role of Domestic Politics in Nuclear Reversal: Identifying the Iranian Domestic and U.S. Drivers of the JCPOA

Abstract

Despite the vast research on why states seek nuclear capability, little is known about the conditions leaders face when deciding to reverse nuclear ambitions. A theoretical paradigm of realism is often used to deduct state action and behavior but scholars are in agreement that a variety of circumstances like improved national security; political realignment and state incentives can affect nuclear reversal. This study looks at the role of internal Iranian and U.S. domestic politics that resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). An analysis of domestic Iranian drivers yields the legacy (economic mismanagement, domestic mismanagement and corruption, and foreign policy embarrassments) of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency (2005-2013) initiated the need for political realignment. U.S. drivers of the JCPOA lean heavily on different presidential non-proliferation implementation approaches. The findings add nuance to one theory of nuclear reversal: when leaders change, so can the state’s nuclear policy. This study is a part of a growing body of research in understanding the role domestic politics play in nuclear aspiring states.