Opportunity for Offshore Wind to Reduce Future Demand for Coal-Fired Power Plants in China with Consequent Savings in Emissions of CO 2

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Opportunity for Offshore Wind to Reduce Future Demand for Coal-Fired Power Plants in China with Consequent Savings in Emissions of CO 2

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Title: Opportunity for Offshore Wind to Reduce Future Demand for Coal-Fired Power Plants in China with Consequent Savings in Emissions of CO 2
Author: Lu, Xi; McElroy, Michael Brendon; Chen, Xinyu; Kang, Chongqing

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Citation: Lu, Xi, Michael B. McElroy, Xinyu Chen, and Chongqing Kang. 2014. “ Opportunity for Offshore Wind to Reduce Future Demand for Coal-Fired Power Plants in China with Consequent Savings in Emissions of CO 2 .” Environ. Sci. Technol. 48 (24) (December 16): 14764–14771. doi:10.1021/es503767x.
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Abstract: Although capacity credits for wind power have been embodied in power systems in the U.S. and Europe, the current planning framework for electricity in China continues to treat wind power as a nondispatchable source with zero contribution to firm capacity. This study adopts a rigorous reliability model for the electric power system evaluating capacity credits that should be recognized for offshore wind resources supplying power demands for Jiangsu, China. Jiangsu is an economic hub located in the Yangtze River delta accounting for 10% of the total electricity consumed in China. Demand for electricity in Jiangsu is projected to increase from 331 TWh in 2009 to 800 TWh by 2030. Given a wind penetration level of 60% for the future additional Jiangsu power supply, wind resources distributed along the offshore region of five coastal provinces in China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Fujian) should merit a capacity credit of 12.9%, the fraction of installed wind capacity that should be recognized to displace coal-fired systems without violating the reliability standard. In the high-coal-price scenario, with 60% wind penetration, reductions in CO2 emissions relative to a business as usual reference could be as large as 200.2 million tons of CO2 or 51.8% of the potential addition, with a cost for emissions avoided of $29.0 per ton.
Published Version: doi:10.1021/es503767x
Terms of Use: This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Open Access Policy Articles, as set forth at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#OAP
Citable link to this page: http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:22560578
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