| dc.contributor.author | Campbell, John | |
| dc.contributor.author | Shiller, Robert | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2009-08-24T20:25:00Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 1988 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Campbell, John Y., and Robert J. Shiller. 1988. Stock prices, earnings, and expected dividends, in Papers and Proceedings of the Forty-Seventh Annual Meeting of the American Finance Association, Chicago, Illinois, December 28-30, 1987. Journal of Finance 43, no. 3: 661-676. | en |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0022-1082 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:3224293 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Long historical averages of real earnings help forecast present values of future real dividends. With aggregate U.S. stock market data (1871-1986), a vector-autoregressive forecast of the present value of future dividends is, for each year, roughly a weighted average of moving-average earnings and current real price, with between two thirds and three fourths of the weight on the earnings measure. We develop the implications of this for the present-value model of stock prices and for recent results that long-horizon stock returns are highly forecastable. | en |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Economics | en |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | en |
| dc.publisher | Wiley-Blackwell | en |
| dc.relation.isversionof | http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2328190 | en |
| dc.relation.hasversion | http://www.nber.org/papers/w2511 | en |
| dash.license | LAA | |
| dc.title | Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends | en |
| dc.relation.journal | Journal of Finance | en |
| dash.depositing.author | Campbell, John | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.2307/2328190 | * |
| dash.contributor.affiliated | Campbell, John | |
