Person:

Yantosca, Robert

We use aircraft observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from the NASA ARCTAS and NOAA ARCPAC campaigns in April 2008 together with multiyear (2003–2008) CO satellite data from the AIRS instrument and a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to better understand the sources, transport, and interannual variability of pollution in the Arctic in spring. Model simulation of the aircraft data gives best estimates of CO emissions in April 2008 of (26 Tg month^{−1}) for Asian anthropogenic, 9.4 for European anthropogenic, 4.1 for North American anthropogenic, 15 for Russian biomass burning (anomalously large that year), and 23 for Southeast Asian biomass burning. We find that Asian anthropogenic emissions are the dominant source of Arctic CO pollution everywhere except in surface air where European anthropogenic emissions are of similar importance. Russian biomass burning makes little contribution to mean CO (reflecting the long CO lifetime) but makes a large contribution to CO variability in the form of combustion plumes. Analysis of two pollution events sampled by the aircraft demonstrates that AIRS can successfully observe pollution transport to the Arctic in the mid-troposphere. The 2003–2008 record of CO from AIRS shows that interannual variability averaged over the Arctic cap is very small. AIRS CO columns over Alaska are highly correlated with the Ocean Niño Index, suggesting a link between El Niño and Asian pollution transport to the Arctic. AIRS shows lower-than-average CO columns over Alaska during April 2008, despite the Russian fires, due to a weakened Aleutian Low hindering transport from Asia and associated with the moderate 2007–2008 La Niña. This suggests that Asian pollution influence over the Arctic may be particularly large under strong El Niño conditions.

We develop an improved treatment of the surface ocean in the GEOS-Chem global 3-D biogeochemical model for mercury (Hg). We replace the globally uniform subsurface ocean Hg concentrations used in the original model with basin-specific values based on measurements. Updated chemical mechanisms for Hg0/HgII redox reactions in the surface ocean include both photochemical and biological processes, and we improved the parametrization of particle-associated Hg scavenging. Modeled aqueous Hg concentrations are consistent with limited surface water observations. Results more accurately reproduce high-observed MBL concentrations over the North Atlantic (NA) and the associated seasonal trends. High seasonal evasion in the NA is driven by inputs from Hg enriched subsurface waters through entrainment and Ekman pumping. Globally, subsurface waters account for 40% of Hg inputs to the ocean mixed layer, and 60% is from atmospheric deposition. Although globally the ocean is a net sink for 3.8 Mmol Hg y−1, the NA is a net source to the atmosphere, potentially due to enrichment of subsurface waters with legacy Hg from historical anthropogenic sources.

[1] Long-term observations at Arctic sites (Alert and Zeppelin) show large interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric mercury (Hg), implying a strong sensitivity of Hg to environmental factors and potentially to climate change. We use the GEOS-Chem global biogeochemical Hg model to interpret these observations and identify the principal drivers of spring and summer IAV in the Arctic atmosphere and surface ocean from 1979–2008. The model has moderate skill in simulating the observed atmospheric IAV at the two sites (r ~ 0.4) and successfully reproduces a long-term shift at Alert in the timing of the spring minimum from May to April (r = 0.7). Principal component analysis indicates that much of the IAV in the model can be explained by a single climate mode with high temperatures, low sea ice fraction, low cloudiness, and shallow boundary layer. This mode drives decreased bromine-driven deposition in spring and increased ocean evasion in summer. In the Arctic surface ocean, we find that the IAV for modeled total Hg is dominated by the meltwater flux of Hg previously deposited to sea ice, which is largest in years with high solar radiation (clear skies) and cold spring air temperature. Climate change in the Arctic is projected to result in increased cloudiness and strong warming in spring, which may thus lead to decreased Hg inputs to the Arctic Ocean. The effect of climate change on Hg discharges from Arctic rivers remains a major source of uncertainty.

We describe the Harvard–NASA Emission Component version 1.0 (HEMCO), a stand-alone software component for computing emissions in global atmospheric models. HEMCO determines emissions from different sources, regions, and species on a user-defined grid and can combine, overlay, and update a set of data inventories and scale factors, as specified by the user through the HEMCO configuration file. New emission inventories at any spatial and temporal resolution are readily added to HEMCO and can be accessed by the user without any preprocessing of the data files or modification of the source code. Emissions that depend on dynamic source types and local environmental variables such as wind speed or surface temperature are calculated in separate HEMCO extensions.

HEMCO is fully compliant with the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) environment. It is highly portable and can be deployed in a new model environment with only few adjustments at the top-level interface. So far, we have implemented HEMCO in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Earth system model (ESM) and in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM).

By providing a widely applicable framework for specifying constituent emissions, HEMCO is designed to ease sensitivity studies and model comparisons, as well as inverse modeling in which emissions are adjusted iteratively. The HEMCO code, extensions, and the full set of emissions data files used in GEOS-Chem are available at http://wiki.geos-chem.org/HEMCO.

Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) formed in the atmospheric oxidation of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) is the principal tropospheric reservoir for nitrogen oxide radicals ((NO_x = NO + NO_2)). PAN enables the transport and release of (NO_x) to the remote troposphere with major implications for the global distributions of ozone and OH, the main tropospheric oxidants. Simulation of PAN is a challenge for global models because of the dependence of PAN on vertical transport as well as complex and uncertain NMVOC sources and chemistry. Here we use an improved representation of NMVOCs in a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and show that it can simulate PAN observations from aircraft campaigns worldwide. The immediate carbonyl precursors for PAN formation include acetaldehyde (44% of the global source), methylglyoxal (30%), acetone (7%), and a suite of other isoprene and terpene oxidation products (19%). A diversity of NMVOC emissions is responsible for PAN formation globally including isoprene (37%) and alkanes (14%). Anthropogenic sources are dominant in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere outside the growing season. Open fires appear to play little role except at high northern latitudes in spring, although results are very sensitive to plume chemistry and plume rise. Lightning (NO_x) is the dominant contributor to the observed PAN maximum in the free troposphere over the South Atlantic.

A global 3-D chemical transport model is used to analyze observations of carbon monoxide (CO) and upper tropospheric clouds from the EOS Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). MLS observations during 25 August–6 September 2004 reveal elevated CO and dense high clouds in the upper troposphere over the Tibetan plateau and southwest China, collocating with the upper level Tibetan anticyclone. Model simulations indicate the transport of boundary layer pollution by Asian summer monsoon (ASM) convection and orographic lifting to the upper troposphere over South Asia, where simulated distributions of CO resemble MLS observations. Model results also show elevated aerosols in the anticyclone region. Analysis of model simulated CO and aerosols indicate that the Tibetan anticyclone could ‘trap’ anthropogenic emissions lifted from northeast India and southwest China. These aerosols may be responsible for the formation of some of the dense high clouds.

We evaluate the sensitivity of tropospheric OH, O3, and O3 precursors to photochemical effects of aerosols not usually included in global models: (1) aerosol scattering and absorption of ultraviolet radiation and (2) reactive uptake of HO2, NO2, and NO3. Our approach is to couple a global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) with aerosol fields from a global 3-D aerosol model (GOCART). Reactive uptake by aerosols is computed using reaction probabilities from a recent review (γHO2 = 0.2, γNO2 = 10−4, γNO3 = 10−3). Aerosols decrease the O3 [RIGHTWARDS ARROW] O(1D) photolysis frequency by 5–20% at the surface throughout the Northern Hemisphere (largely due to mineral dust) and by a factor of 2 in biomass burning regions (largely due to black carbon). Aerosol uptake of HO2 accounts for 10–40% of total HOx radical (≡ OH + peroxy) loss in the boundary layer over polluted continental regions (largely due to sulfate and organic carbon) and for more than 70% over tropical biomass burning regions (largely due to organic carbon). Uptake of NO2 and NO3 accounts for 10–20% of total HNO3 production over biomass burning regions and less elsewhere. Annual mean OH concentrations decrease by 9% globally and by 5–35% in the boundary layer over the Northern Hemisphere. Simulated CO increases by 5–15 ppbv in the remote Northern Hemisphere, improving agreement with observations. Simulated boundary layer O3 decreases by 15–45 ppbv over India during the biomass burning season in March and by 5–9 ppbv over northern Europe in August, again improving comparison with observations. We find that particulate matter controls would increase surface O3 over Europe and other industrial regions.

The sources contributing to tropospheric ozone over the Asian Pacific Rim in different seasons are quantified by analysis of Hong Kong and Japanese ozonesonde observations with a global three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) driven by assimilated meteorological observations. Particular focus is placed on the extensive observations available from Hong Kong in 1996. In the middle-upper troposphere (MT-UT), maximum Asian pollution influence along the Pacific Rim occurs in summer, reflecting rapid convective transport of surface pollution. In the lower troposphere (LT) the season of maximum Asian pollution influence shifts to summer at midlatitudes from fall at low latitudes due to monsoonal influence. The UT ozone minimum and high variability observed over Hong Kong in winter reflects frequent tropical intrusions alternating with stratospheric intrusions. Asian biomass burning makes a major contribution to ozone at <32°N in spring. Maximum European pollution influence (<5 ppbv) occurs in spring in the LT. North American pollution influence exceeds European influence in the UT-MT, reflecting the uplift from convection and the warm conveyor belts over the eastern seaboard of North America. African outflow makes a major contribution to ozone in the low-latitude MT-UT over the Pacific Rim during November–April. Lightning influence over the Pacific Rim is minimum in summer due to westward UT transport at low latitudes associated with the Tibetan anticyclone. The Asian outflow flux of ozone to the Pacific is maximum in spring and fall and includes a major contribution from Asian anthropogenic sources year-round.

Aircraft observations of Asian outflow from the Transport and Chemical Evolution Over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission over the NW Pacific (March and April 2001) show large CH4 enhancements relative to background, as well as strong CH4-C2H6-CO correlations that provide signatures of regional sources. We apply a global chemical transport model simulation of the CH4-C2H6-CO system for the TRACE-P period to interpret these observations in terms of CH4 sources and to explore in particular the unique constraints from the CH4-C2H6-CO correlations. We use as a priori a global CH4 source inventory constrained with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) surface observations [Wang et al., 2004]. We find that the observed CH4 concentration enhancements and CH4-C2H6-CO correlations in Asian outflow in TRACE-P are determined mainly by anthropogenic emissions from China and Eurasia (defined here as Europe and eastern Russia), with only little contribution from tropical sources (wetlands and biomass burning). The a priori inventory overestimates the observed CH4 enhancements and shows regionally variable biases for the CH4/C2H6 slope. The CH4/CO slopes are simulated without significant bias. Matching both the observed CH4 enhancements and the CH4-C2H6-CO slopes in Asian outflow requires increasing the east Asian anthropogenic source of CH4, and decreasing the Eurasian anthropogenic source, by at least 30% for both. The need to increase the east Asian source is driven by the underestimate of the CH4/C2H6 slope in boundary layer Chinese outflow. The Streets et al. [2003] anthropogenic emission inventory for east Asia fits this constraint by increasing CH4 emissions from that region by 40% relative to the a priori, largely because of higher livestock and landfill source estimates. Eurasian sources (mostly European) then need to be reduced by 30–50% from the a priori value of 68 Tg yr−1. The decrease of European sources could result in part from recent mitigation of emissions from coal mining and landfills.

We use a global three-dimensional coupled oxidant-aerosol model (GEOS-CHEM) to estimate natural and transboundary pollution influences on sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol concentrations in the United States. This work is motivated in part by the Regional Haze Rule of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which requires immediate action to improve visibility in U.S. wilderness areas along a linear trajectory toward an endpoint of “natural visibility conditions” by 2064. We present full-year simulations for 1998 and 2001 and evaluate them with nationwide networks of observations in the United States and Europe (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE), Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET), National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP), European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP)) and with Asian outflow observations from the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission. Shutting off U.S. anthropogenic emissions in the model defines “background” aerosol concentrations representing contributions from both natural and transboundary pollution sources. We find that transboundary transport of pollution from Canada, Mexico, and Asia dominates over natural influences for both sulfate and nitrate. Trans-Pacific transport of Asian pollution accounts for 30% of background sulfate in both the western and eastern United States. Our best estimates of natural concentrations for ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate in the United States are either consistent with or lower than the default values recommended by EPA for natural visibility calculations. However, the large transboundary pollution influence in our calculation suggests that a natural visibility objective cannot be approached without international emission controls.