Person:

Pagano, Marcello

Background: Aggregation of spatial data is intended to protect privacy, but some effects of aggregation on spatial methods have not yet been quantified. Methods: We generated 3,000 spatial data sets and evaluated power of detection at 12 different levels of aggregation using the spatial scan statistic implemented in SaTScan v6.0. Results: Power to detect clusters decreased from nearly 100% when using exact locations to roughly 40% at the coarsest level of spatial resolution. Conclusion: Aggregation has the potential for obfuscation.

Background: High quality program data is critical for managing, monitoring, and evaluating national HIV treatment programs. By 2009, the Malawi Ministry of Health had initiated more than 270,000 patients on HIV treatment at 377 sites. Quarterly supervision of these antiretroviral therapy (ART) sites ensures high quality care, but the time currently dedicated to exhaustive record review and data cleaning detracts from other critical components. The exhaustive record review is unlikely to be sustainable long term because of the resources required and increasing number of patients on ART. This study quantifies the current levels of data quality and evaluates Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) as a tool to prioritize sites with low data quality, thus lowering costs while maintaining sufficient quality for program monitoring and patient care. Methods: In January 2010, a study team joined supervision teams at 19 sites purposely selected to reflect the variety of ART sites. During the exhaustive data review, the time allocated to data cleaning and data discrepancies were documented. The team then randomly sampled 76 records from each site, recording secondary outcomes and the time required for sampling. Results: At the 19 sites, only 1.2% of records had discrepancies in patient outcomes and 0.4% in treatment regimen. However, data cleaning took 28.5 hours in total, suggesting that data cleaning for all 377 ART sites would require over 350 supervision-hours quarterly. The LQAS tool accurately identified the sites with the low data quality, reduced the time for data cleaning by 70%, and allowed for reporting on secondary outcomes. Conclusions: Most sites maintained high quality records. In spite of this, data cleaning required significant amounts of time with little effect on program estimates of patient outcomes. LQAS conserves resources while maintaining sufficient data quality for program assessment and management to allow for quality patient care.

Motivation: For the analysis of rare variants in sequence data, numerous approaches have been suggested. Fixed and flexible threshold approaches collapse the rare variant information of a genomic region into a test statistic with reduced dimensionality. Alternatively, the rare variant information can be combined in statistical frameworks that are based on suitable regression models, machine learning, etc. Although the existing approaches provide powerful tests that can incorporate information on allele frequencies and prior biological knowledge, differences in the spatial clustering of rare variants between cases and controls cannot be incorporated. Based on the assumption that deleterious variants and protective variants cluster or occur in different parts of the genomic region of interest, we propose a testing strategy for rare variants that builds on spatial cluster methodology and that guides the identification of the biological relevant segments of the region. Our approach does not require any assumption about the directions of the genetic effects. Results: In simulation studies, we assess the power of the clustering approach and compare it with existing methodology. Our simulation results suggest that the clustering approach for rare variants is well powered, even in situations that are ideal for standard methods. The efficiency of our spatial clustering approach is not affected by the presence of rare variants that have opposite effect size directions. An application to a sequencing study for non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NSCL/P) demonstrates its practical relevance. The proposed testing strategy is applied to a genomic region on chromosome 15q13.3 that was implicated in NSCL/P etiology in a previous genome-wide association study, and its results are compared with standard approaches. Availability: Source code and documentation for the implementation in R will be provided online. Currently, the R-implementation only supports genotype data. We currently are working on an extension for VCF files. Contact: heide.fier@googlemail.com

Rapid and accurate identification of the prevalence of schistosomiasis is key for control and eradication of this devastating disease. The current screening standard for intestinal schistosomiasis is the Katz-Kato method, which look for eggs on slides of fecal matter. Although work has been done to estimate prevalence using the number of eggs on a slide, the procedure is much faster if the laboratory only reports the presence or absence of eggs on each slide. To further help reduce screening costs while maintaining accuracy, we propose a pooled method for estimating prevalence. We compare it to the standard individualed method, investigating differences in efficiency, measured by the number of slides read, and accuracy, measured by mean square error of estimation. Complication is introduced by the unknown and varying sensitivity of the procedure with population prevalence. The DeVlas model for the worm and egg distributions in the population describes how test sensitivity increases with age of the epidemic, as prevalence and intensity of infection increase, making the problem fundamentally different from earlier work in pooling. Previous literature discusses varying sensitivity with the number of positive samples within a pool, known as the “dilution effect.” We model both the dilution effect and varying sensitivity with population prevalence. For model parameter values suited to younger age groups, the pooled method has less than half the mean square error of the individualed method. Thus, we can use half as many slides while maintaining accuracy. Such savings might encourage more frequent measurements in regions where schistosomiasis is a serious but neglected problem.

Background: Public health departments in the United States are beginning to gain timely access to health data, often as soon as one day after a visit to a health care facility. Consequently, new approaches to outbreak surveillance are being developed. When cases cluster geographically, an analysis of their spatial distribution can facilitate outbreak detection. Our method focuses on detecting perturbations in the distribution of pair-wise distances among all patients in a geographical region. Barring outbreaks, this distribution can be quite stable over time. We sought to exemplify the method by measuring its cluster detection performance, and to determine factors affecting sensitivity to spatial clustering among patients presenting to hospital emergency departments with respiratory syndromes. Methods: The approach was to (1) define a baseline spatial distribution of home addresses for a population of patients visiting an emergency department with respiratory syndromes using historical data; (2) develop a controlled feature set simulation by inserting simulated outbreak data with varied parameters into authentic background noise, thereby creating semisynthetic data; (3) compare the observed with the expected spatial distribution; (4) establish the relative value of different alarm strategies so as to maximize sensitivity for the detection of clustering; and (5) measure factors which have an impact on sensitivity. Results: Overall sensitivity to detect spatial clustering was 62%. This contrasts with an overall alarm rate of less than 5% for the same number of extra visits when the extra visits were not characterized by geographic clustering. Clusters that produced the least number of alarms were those that were small in size (10 extra visits in a week, where visits per week ranged from 120 to 472), diffusely distributed over an area with a 3 km radius, and located close to the hospital (5 km) in a region most densely populated with patients to this hospital. Near perfect alarm rates were found for clusters that varied on the opposite extremes of these parameters (40 extra visits, within a 250 meter radius, 50 km from the hospital). Conclusion: Measuring perturbations in the interpoint distance distribution is a sensitive method for detecting spatial clustering. When cases are clustered geographically, there is clearly power to detect clustering when the spatial distribution is represented by the M statistic, even when clusters are small in size. By varying independent parameters of simulated outbreaks, we have demonstrated empirically the limits of detection of different types of outbreaks.

Background: Originally a binary classifier, Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) has proven to be a useful tool for classification of the prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni into multiple categories (≤10%, >10 and <50%, ≥50%), and semi-curtailed sampling has been shown to effectively reduce the number of observations needed to reach a decision. To date the statistical underpinnings for Multiple Category-LQAS (MC-LQAS) have not received full treatment. We explore the analytical properties of MC-LQAS, and validate its use for the classification of S. mansoni prevalence in multiple settings in East Africa. Methodology We outline MC-LQAS design principles and formulae for operating characteristic curves. In addition, we derive the average sample number for MC-LQAS when utilizing semi-curtailed sampling and introduce curtailed sampling in this setting. We also assess the performance of MC-LQAS designs with maximum sample sizes of n = 15 and n = 25 via a weighted kappa-statistic using S. mansoni data collected in 388 schools from four studies in East Africa. Principle Findings Overall performance of MC-LQAS classification was high (kappa-statistic of 0.87). In three of the studies, the kappa-statistic for a design with n = 15 was greater than 0.75. In the fourth study, where these designs performed poorly (kappa-statistic less than 0.50), the majority of observations fell in regions where potential error is known to be high. Employment of semi-curtailed and curtailed sampling further reduced the sample size by as many as 0.5 and 3.5 observations per school, respectively, without increasing classification error. Conclusion/Significance: This work provides the needed analytics to understand the properties of MC-LQAS for assessing the prevalance of S. mansoni and shows that in most settings a sample size of 15 children provides a reliable classification of schools.

Background: Traditional Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) designs assume observations are collected using simple random sampling. Alternatively, randomly sampling clusters of observations and then individuals within clusters reduces costs but decreases the precision of the classifications. In this paper, we develop a general framework for designing the cluster(C)-LQAS system and illustrate the method with the design of data quality assessments for the community health worker program in Rwanda. Results: To determine sample size and decision rules for C-LQAS, we use the beta-binomial distribution to account for inflated risk of errors introduced by sampling clusters at the first stage. We present general theory and code for sample size calculations. The C-LQAS sample sizes provided in this paper constrain misclassification risks below user-specified limits. Multiple C-LQAS systems meet the specified risk requirements, but numerous considerations, including per-cluster versus per-individual sampling costs, help identify optimal systems for distinct applications. Conclusions: We show the utility of C-LQAS for data quality assessments, but the method generalizes to numerous applications. This paper provides the necessary technical detail and supplemental code to support the design of C-LQAS for specific programs.

Background: The Uzbekistan 1996 Demographic Health Survey reported 60.4% of women of reproductive age (WRA) had low hemoglobin concentrations (<120 g/L), and anemia was an important public health problem. Fortification of wheat flour was identified as an appropriate intervention to address anemia due to the ubiquitous consumption of wheat flour. A National Flour Fortification Program (NFFP) was implemented in 2005. Methodology/Principal Findings After 3-years of the NFFP, a national survey using large country-lot quality assurance sampling was carried out to assess iron, folate, hemoglobin and inflammation status of WRA; the coverage and knowledge of the fortified first grade UzDonMakhsulot (UDM) flour/grey loaf program; and consumption habits of women to investigate the dietary factors associated with anemia. Estimated anemia prevalence was 34.4% (95% CI: 32.0, 36.7), iron depletion 47.5% (95% CI: 45.1, 49.9) and folate deficiency 28.8% (95% CI: 26.8, 30.8); the effect of inflammation was minimal (4% with CRP >5 mg/L). Severe anemia was more prevalent among folate deficient than iron depleted WRA. Presence of UDM first grade flour or the grey loaf was reported in 71.3% of households. Among WRA, 32.1% were aware of UDM fortification; only 3.7% mentioned the benefits of fortification and 12.5% understood causes of anemia. Consumption of heme iron-containing food (91%) and iron absorption enhancers (97%) was high, as was the consumption of iron absorption inhibitors (95%). Conclusions/Significance: The NFFP coincided with a substantial decline in the prevalence of anemia. Folate deficiency was a stronger predictor of severe anemia than iron depletion. However, the prevalence of iron depletion was high, suggesting that women are not eating enough iron or iron absorption is inhibited. Fortified products were prevalent throughout Uzbekistan, though UDM flour must be adequately fortified and monitored in the future. Knowledge of fortification and anemia was low, suggesting consumer education should be prioritized.

Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) surveys are commonly used for monitoring and evaluation in resource-limited settings. Recently several methods have been proposed to combine LQAS with cluster sampling for more timely and cost-effective data collection. For some of these methods, the standard binomial model can be used for constructing decision rules as the clustering can be ignored. For other designs, considered here, clustering is accommodated in the design phase. In this paper, we compare these latter cluster LQAS methodologies and provide recommendations for choosing a cluster LQAS design. We compare technical differences in the three methods and determine situations in which the choice of method results in a substantively different design. We consider two different aspects of the methods: the distributional assumptions and the clustering parameterization. Further, we provide software tools for implementing each method and clarify misconceptions about these designs in the literature. We illustrate the differences in these methods using vaccination and nutrition cluster LQAS surveys as example designs. The cluster methods are not sensitive to the distributional assumptions but can result in substantially different designs (sample sizes) depending on the clustering parameterization. However, none of the clustering parameterizations used in the existing methods appears to be consistent with the observed data, and, consequently, choice between the cluster LQAS methods is not straightforward. Further research should attempt to characterize clustering patterns in specific applications and provide suggestions for best-practice cluster LQAS designs on a setting-specific basis.

Background: Estimates of parameters for disease transmission in large-scale infectious disease outbreaks are often obtained to represent large groups of people, providing an average over a potentially very diverse area. For control measures to be more effective, a measure of the heterogeneity of the parameters is desirable. Methods: We propose a novel extension of a network-based approach to estimating the reproductive number. With this we can incorporate spatial and/or demographic information through a similarity matrix. We apply this to the 2009 Influenza pandemic in South Africa to understand the spatial variability across provinces. We explore the use of five similarity matrices to illustrate their impact on the subsequent epidemic parameter estimates. Results: When treating South Africa as a single entity with homogeneous transmission characteristics across the country, the basic reproductive number, R0, (and imputation range) is 1.33 (1.31, 1.36). When fitting a new model for each province with no inter-province connections this estimate varies little (1.23-1.37). Using the proposed method with any of the four similarity measures yields an overall R0 that varies little across the four new models (1.33 to 1.34). However, when allowed to vary across provinces, the estimated R0 is greater than one consistently in only two of the nine provinces, the most densely populated provinces of Gauteng and Western Cape. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the spatial heterogeneity of influenza transmission was compelling in South Africa during the 2009 pandemic. This variability makes a qualitative difference in our understanding of the epidemic. While the cause of this fluctuation might be partially due to reporting differences, there is substantial evidence to warrant further investigation.