Person:

Fortunato, Andres

It is painfully clear that South Africa is performing poorly, exacerbating problems such as inequality and exclusion. The economy’s ability to create jobs is slowing, worsening South Africa’s extreme levels of unemployment and inequality. South Africans are deeply disappointed with social progress and dislike the direction where the country seems to be heading. Despite its enviable productive capabilities, the national economy is losing international competitiveness. As the economy staggers, South Africa faces deteriorating social indicators and declining levels of public satisfaction with the status quo. After 15 years, attempts to stimulate the economy through fiscal policy and to address exclusion through social grants have failed to achieve their goals. Instead, they have sacrificed the country's investment grade, increasing the cost of capital to the whole economy, with little social progress to show for it. The underlying capabilities to achieve sustained growth by leveraging the full capability of its people, companies, assets, and knowhow remain underutilized. Three decades after the end of apartheid, the economy is defined by stagnation and exclusion, and current strategies are not achieving inclusion and empowerment in practice.

This report asks the question of why. Why is the economy growing far slower than any reasonable comparator countries? Why is exclusion so extraordinarily high, even after decades of various policies that have aimed to support socio-economic transformation? What would it take for South Africa to include more of its people, capabilities, assets, and ideas in the functioning of the economy, and why aren’t such actions being undertaken already? The Growth Lab has completed a deep diagnostic of potential causes of South Africa’s prolonged underperformance over a two-year research project. Building on the findings of nine papers and widespread collaboration with government, academics, business and NGOs, this report documents the project’s central findings. Bluntly speaking, the report finds that South Africa is not accomplishing its goals of inclusion, empowerment and transformation, and new strategies and instruments will be needed to do so. We found two broad classes of problems that undermine inclusive growth in the Rainbow Nation: collapsing state capacity and spatial exclusion.

This growth diagnostic report analyzes the economic constraints that explain the underperformance of the agriculture sector in Namibia. Section 1 starts by showing why Namibia’s agricultural challenge is unique when compared to the rest of the world. We then describe the sector’s key features, recent trajectory, and growth potential across different relevant dimensions in Section 2. In Section 3, we provide an adaptation of the growth diagnostic framework to the case of agriculture in Namibia and a detailed analysis of its economic constraints. Finally, Section 4 presents policy guidelines for addressing the challenges described in this report and prioritizing policy interventions accordingly.

The report aims to inform the government’s strategic approach towards manufacturing by analyzing the potential and limits for job creation within the sector. To meet that goal, we analyze the sector’s main features and recent trajectory through the lens of global deindustrialization and South Africa’s particular industrial dynamics. Secondly, we provide evidence of how, when, and why South Africa has deviated from the global deindustrialization trends. Lastly, we provide a policy framework to address the bottlenecks that are preventing South Africa from getting back on a better track of industrial performance.

This is one of four Growth Lab reports that aim to identify promising growth opportunities for Hermosillo. The focus of this report is nearshoring. Nearshoring is not a new phenomenon in Mexico, but recent changes in U.S. policy aimed to incentivize nearshoring of critical industries. This report first explores current realities of nearshoring and friendshoring in recent years, based on global trade and the distance which U.S. imports are traveling, and Mexico’s dynamics in global trade and investment in comparison to other countries. The report then evaluates the economic growth opportunities that nearshoring could incentivize in Hermosillo. We analyze the nearshoring opportunity set for Hermosillo across products and industries and if they are based on the city’s productive capabilities.

This report confirms that nearshoring and friendshoring have been taking place in global trade and investment in response to U.S. policy between 2017 and 2023. Mexico has made gains in its exports to the U.S. market in recent years as exports from China have lost ground, but it is not the only country doing so. A few countries like Vietnam benefited even more, despite being geographically far from the U.S. market. Mexico is seeing growth in products it has traditionally exported, but it is not seeing much diversification into products that the U.S. has deemed critical. Nor is Mexico seeing promising investment trends that would signal an acceleration of growth in these opportunities. Given Hermosillo’s position as a large city that is near the U.S. market, and to a growing market in Arizona in particular, the process of nearshoring represents a potentially transformational chance to jumpstart growth in attractive industries to better position the local economy for the future.

This report provides analysis to begin to identify the most promising nearshoring opportunities for Hermosillo, but local action is needed to build on these initial observations. We identify products and industries that are attractive opportunities for nearshoring in Hermosillo and we evaluate which industries are most consistent with Hermosillo’s existing industry structure and underlying productive capabilities. Promising opportunities stand out in industries related to medical equipment, electronics, machinery, and plastics and the latter sections of this report explore these opportunities in some detail, both quantitatively and more qualitatively. Local strategies to capitalize on these opportunities will vary in design and local actors should weigh the criteria provided and other considerations when deciding which industries are the highest priority for targeted investment promotion and other action steps. One exception, however, is in the value chain for semiconductors, where the emerging opportunity to supply and complement the value chain that is forming in Arizona is too large to pass up. Semiconductors represent an essential area that policymakers and the business community in Hermosillo should embrace, along with a set of additional promising nearshoring opportunities.

In this report, we study Hermosillo’s economic performance and assess critical issues affecting the city’s ability to achieve stronger economic growth. Although Hermosillo is far from experiencing economic stagnation, it fell behind other cities that managed to become successful economic hubs between 2010 and 2020. The main reason behind this trailing growth is Hermosillo’s relatively low diversification and investment dynamics, especially in the manufacturing sector. We apply growth diagnostic testing on various potential constraints to economic growth: logistics, electricity, water, human capital, housing, and transportation. Although none of them have directly constrained economic growth in the past, some are explicit threats to increasing growth in the future, thus catching up with high-performing peers. Electricity, human capital, and logistics are comparative advantages, while water, housing, and transportation are threats.

In 2025, Mexico is expected to start a new period in its economic history marked by the promise of nearshoring and a new presidential administration. In the past, Mexico has gone through milestones that heavily impacted its economic development path, like the establishment of NAFTA and the China Shock (Hanson, 2010). The rise of Northern Mexico and other regions like El Bajío as global manufacturing hubs has resulted from greater integration with the North American market. This has brought foreign direct investments (FDI) targeted at establishing manufacturing sites primarily to cater to US demand and exports to the rest of the world. Mexico holds high expectations that nearshoring will bring opportunities of the same or greater magnitude. In that context, Hermosillo stands out as a city with the potential to exploit those opportunities and enhance its economic transformation. It is crucial to analyze its binding constraints for economic growth, comparative advantages, and potential concerns to understand how well-positioned Hermosillo is to take advantage of this momentum.

Following the introduction and a methodological overview, the report is divided into four main sections. Section 3 provides a growth perspective on Hermosillo; Section 4 presents an analysis of growth constraints; Section 5 explains the local diversification challenge in detail; and Section 6 describes strategic policy areas to accelerate growth that result from this growth diagnostic analysis.