FAS Harvard-China Project

The People's Republic of China is experiencing severe air pollution with very serious public health and economic consequences. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has sought to utilize bureaucratic, political, legal and educational vehicles to address these problems. This paper examines the ways in which those policy measures have been communicated to, understood by, and acted upon by the citizenry, drawing in important part on household and epidemiological surveys conducted in Anhui. Our study suggests that the central government's message has yet to be absorbed to the degree intended and then considers both why this has been the case and how the effectiveness of policy mechanisms might be enhanced.

Observations of CO and NOy from the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission over the northwest Pacific and from two Chinese ground stations (Hong Kong and Lin An) during spring 2001 are used in conjunction with an optimal estimation inverse model to constrain estimates of Asian emissions of CO and NOx. A priori emissions are based on a detailed bottom-up inventory for the observation period. The inversion analysis requires 43% and 47% increases in Chinese emissions of CO and NOx, respectively, distributed heterogeneously, with the largest adjustments required for central China. A posteriori estimates of emissions from biomass burning in Southeast Asia are much lower than a priori values. Inversion results for NOx emissions are consistent with CO emissions in terms of the sense of the adjustments. Inclusion of the station data in the inversion analysis significantly improves estimates for emissions from central and south China. A large increase in NOx emissions inferred for central China (a factor of 3) is attributed to decomposition of organic wastes associated with the human-animal food chain and extensive applications of chemical fertilizer. An analysis of emission ratios for CO relative to NOx for different sectors indicates that emissions attributed to industry and transportation may be underestimated in the bottomup inventory for central China, while emissions from the domestic sector may be underestimated for south China. An increase in emission factors could help reconcile results from the inversion analysis with the ‘‘bottom-up’’ approach. Detailed analysis of the surface observations using a posteriori emissions indicates the importance of meteorological phenomena, notably cold fronts in March and small-scale high- and lowpressure systems in April in modulating concentrations of CO, with the latter most evident in the data from Lin An.

A global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) was modified to permit treatment of a limited spatial regime with resolution higher than that adopted for the global background. Identified as a one-way nested grid formulation, the model was applied to a simulation of CO over Asia during spring 2001. Differences between results obtained using the nested grid (resolution 1° × 1°), the coarse global model (resolution 4° × 5°), and the intermediate global model (resolution 2° × 2.5°) are discussed. The higher-resolution model allows for more efficient, advection-related, ventilation of the lower atmosphere, reflecting the significance of localized regions of intense upward motion not resolved in a coarser-resolution simulation. Budget analysis suggests that upward transfer to higher altitudes through large-scale advection provides the major sink for CO below 4 km. Horizontal advection, mainly through the north boundary, contributes a net source of CO to the window domain despite the polluted nature of the study region. The nested-grid model is shown to provide good agreement with measurements made during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) campaign in spring 2001, notably better than the low-resolution model in simulating frontal lifting process and differences across the boundary separating the regions of cyclonic and anticyclonic flow. The high-resolution window approach also allows us to differentiate transport mechanisms for individual subregions of China on a much finer scale than was possible previously. Suggestions are made as to how to allow for subgrid vertical advective motions in the low-resolution model through a carefully designed and broadly tested eddy diffusion treatment.

More than 220 Tg N are processed annually through the global agriculture/animal/human food chain. It is suggested that aerobic denitrification, reduction of nitrite formed in the first stage of nitrification, is an important source not only of global N2O but also of NOx. A simple top-down method indicates a globally averaged yield of 2% for N2O emitted as a consequence of human disturbances to the global nitrogen cycle. This yield can account not only for the contemporary budget of atmospheric N2O but also for trends observed over the past 1000 years. The associated microbial source of NOx is estimated assuming a NOx/N2O ratio of 3, consistent with results from a variety of laboratory and field studies. This source is significant, particularly for large developing countries such as China and India for which its contribution is comparable to that from fossil fuel.

Aggressive measures were instituted by the Beijing municipal authorities to restrict vehicular traffic in the Chinese capital during the recent Sino-African Summit. We show that reductions in associated emissions of NOx were detected by the Dutch-Finnish Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard the Aura satellite. Interpretation of these data using a 3-dimensional chemical transport model indicates that emissions of NOx were reduced by 40% over the period of November 4 to 6, 2006, for which the restrictions were in place.

Observations of tropospheric column densities of NO2 obtained from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) for a 3-year period (1997, 1998, and 2000) are used to derive average seasonal variations in surface emissions of NOx from east China (100–123°E, 20–42°N). The retrieval allows for zonal variations in the contribution of the stratosphere to the NO2 column and removes a bias of ±10% on the seasonality of retrieved columns introduced by cloud screening. The top-down inventory is constructed using an inversion approach with a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and combined subsequently with the a priori inventory to develop an a posteriori inventory. The contribution of background NO2 arising from nonsurface sources (lightning) and long-range transport of emissions originating outside of east China is accounted for in the inversion. The a posteriori estimate of overall emissions for east China, 4.66 Tg N/yr (±30% uncertainty), is 33% higher than the a priori value and is shown to improve agreement with surface measurements of nitrate wet deposition and concentrations of NOy observed in China. On the basis of multiple constraints on the spatial and seasonal variations of combustion and microbial processes, the a posteriori inventory is partitioned among emissions from biomass burning, fuel combustion, and microbial activity (or soil emissions). Emission of NOx from biomass burning in east China is estimated as 0.08 TgN/yr ± 50% in the a posteriori inventory, increased by about a factor of 2 from the a priori estimate. The resulting a posteriori inventory for fuel combustion (3.72 TgN/yr ± 32%) is about 15% higher than the a priori and exhibits a distinct maximum in winter, in contrast to the weak seasonality indicated in the a priori inventory. The a posteriori value for the microbial source of NOx (0.85 TgN/yr ± 40%) is about a factor of 3 higher than the a priori value, amounting to 23% of combustion sources for east China and significantly higher than a priori value of 7%. The microbial source is unimportant in winter. It peaks in summer, accounting for as much as 43% of the combustion source for that season, and is significant also in spring and fall. This seasonality is attributed to the timing of fertilizer application and to the influence of seasonally variable environmental factors including temperature and precipitation.

Large intra-season differences in mixing ratios of CO and (O_3) were detected at Miyun, a rural site north of Beijing, in summer 2006. Despite an increase in mean daytime mixing ratio of CO from 500 ppbv in June to 700 ppbv in July, mean daytime (O_3) dropped from 67 ppbv in June to 50 ppbv in July and August. The observed changes in CO and (O_3) are attributed to the influence of the summer monsoonal circulation that develops over the North China Plain in July. Photochemical production of (O_3) is reduced as a consequence of increased cloudiness during July and August, as indicated by the strong negative correlation observed between (O_3) and satellite observations of cloud optical depth, with cloudiness having little effect on CO. The analysis suggests a strategy for emission controls that could be implemented in an economically efficient manner to minimize the frequency of high levels of (O_3) during summer in Beijing.

A series of aggressive measures was launched by the Chinese government to reduce pollutant emissions from Beijing and surrounding areas during the Olympic Games. Observations at Miyun, a rural site 100 km downwind of the Beijing urban center, show significant decreases in concentrations of O3, CO, NOy, and SO2 during August 2008, relative to August 2006–2007. The mean daytime mixing ratio of O3 was lower by about 15 ppbv, reduced to 50 ppbv, in August 2008. The relative reductions in daytime SO2, CO, and NOy were 61%, 25%, and 21%, respectively. Changes in SO2 and in species correlations from 2007 to 2008 indicate that emissions of SO2, CO, and NOx were reduced at least by 60%, 32%, and 36%, respectively, during the Olympics. Analysis of meteorological conditions and interpretation of observations using a chemical transport model suggest that although the day-to-day variability in ozone is driven mostly by meteorology, the reduction in emissions of ozone precursors associated with the Olympic Games had a significant contribution to the observed decrease in O3 during August 2008, accounting for 80% of the O3 reduction for the month as a whole and 45% during the Olympics Period (8–24 August). The model predicts that emission restrictions such as those implemented during the Olympics can affect O3 far beyond the Beijing urban area, resulting in reductions in boundary layer O3 of 2–10 ppbv over a large region of the North China Plain and Northeastern China.

An updated version of the nested-grid GEOS-Chem model is developed allowing for higher horizontal (0.5°×0.667°) and vertical resolution as compared to global models. CO transport over a heavily polluted region, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) city cluster in China, and the pattern of outflow from East China in summertime are investigated. Comparison of the nested-grid with global models indicates that the fine-resolution nested-grid model is capable of resolving individual cities with high associated emission intensities. The nested-grid model indicates the presence of a high CO column density over the Sichuan Basin in summer, attributable to the low-level stationary vortex associated with the Basin's topographical features. The nested-grid model provides good agreement also with measurements from a suburban monitoring site in Beijing during summer 2005. Tagged CO simulation results suggest that regional emissions make significant contributions to elevated CO levels over Beijing on polluted days and that the southeastward moving cyclones bringing northwest winds to Beijing are the key meteorological mechanisms responsible for dispersion of pollution over Beijing in summer. Overall CO fluxes to the NW Pacific from Asia are found to decrease by a factor of 3–4 from spring to summer. Much of the seasonal change is driven by decreasing fluxes from India and Southeast Asia in summer, while fluxes from East China are only 30% lower in summer than in spring. Compared to spring, summertime outflow from Chinese source regions is strongest at higher latitudes (north of 35° N). The deeper convection in summer transporting CO to higher altitudes where export is more efficient is largely responsible for enhanced export in summer.

Wind offers an important alternative to coal as a source of energy for generation of electricity in China with the potential for substantial savings in carbon dioxide emissions. Wind fields derived from assimilated meteorological data are used to assess the potential for wind-generated electricity in China subject to the existing government-approved bidding process for new wind farms. Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kilowatt-hour for delivery of electricity to the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, it is concluded that wind could accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice current consumption. Electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would be sufficient to displace 23% of electricity generated from coal.

An updated version of the nested-grid GEOS-Chem model is developed allowing for higher horizontal (0.5°×0.667°) resolution as compared to global models. CO transport over a heavily polluted region, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) city cluster in China, and the pattern of outflow from East China in summertime are investigated. Comparison of the nested-grid with global models indicates that the fine-resolution nested-grid model is capable of resolving individual cities with high associated emission intensities. The nested-grid model indicates the presence of a high CO column density over the Sichuan Basin in summer, attributable to the low-level stationary vortex associated with the Basin's topographical features. The nested-grid model provides good agreement also with measurements from a suburban monitoring site in Beijing during summer 2005. Tagged CO simulation results suggest that regional emissions make significant contributions to elevated CO levels over Beijing on polluted days and that the southeastward moving cyclones bringing northwest winds to Beijing are the key meteorological mechanisms responsible for dispersion of pollution over Beijing in summer. Overall CO fluxes to the NW Pacific from Asia are found to decrease by a factor of 3–4 from spring to summer. Much of the seasonal change is driven by decreasing fluxes from India and Southeast Asia in summer, while fluxes from East China are only 30% lower in summer than in spring. Compared to spring, summertime outflow from Chinese source regions is strongest at higher latitudes (north of 35° N). The deeper convection in summer transporting CO to higher altitudes where export is more efficient is largely responsible for enhanced export in summer.

Facing challenges of increased energy consumption and related regional air pollution, China has been aggressively implementing flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and phasing out small inefficient units in the power sector in order to achieve the national goal of 10% reduction in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from 2005 to 2010. In this paper, the effect of these measures on soil acidification is explored. An integrated methodology is used, combining emission inventory data, emission forecasts, air quality modeling, and ecological sensitivities indicated by critical load. National emissions of SO2, oxides of nitrogen (NOX), particulate matter (PM), and ammonia (NH3) in 2005 were estimated to be 30.7, 19.6, 31.3, and 16.6 Mt, respectively. Implementation of existing policy will lead to reductions in SO2 and PM emissions, while those of NOX and NH3 will continue to rise, even under tentatively proposed control measures. In 2005, the critical load for soil acidification caused by sulfur (S) deposition was exceeded in 28% of the country’s territory, mainly in eastern and south-central China. The area in exceedance will decrease to 26% and 20% in 2010 and 2020, respectively, given implementation of current plans for emission reductions. However, the exceedance of the critical load for nitrogen (N, combining effects of eutrophication and acidification) will double from 2005 to 2020 due to increased NOX and NH3 emissions. Combining the acidification effects of S and N, the benefits of SO2 reductions during 2005−2010 will almost be negated by increased N emissions. Therefore abatement of N emissions (NOX and NH3) and deposition will be a major challenge to China, requiring policy development and technology investments. To mitigate acidification in the future, China needs a multipollutant control strategy that integrates measures to reduce S, N, and PM.

The potential of wind power as a global source of electricity is assessed by using winds derived through assimilation of data from a variety of meteorological sources. The analysis indicates that a network of land-based 2.5-megawatt (MW) turbines restricted to nonforested, ice-free, nonurban areas operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity could supply >40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity, >5 times total global use of energy in all forms. Resources in the contiguous United States, specifically in the central plain states, could accommodate as much as 16 times total current demand for electricity in the United States. Estimates are given also for quantities of electricity that could be obtained by using a network of 3.6-MW turbines deployed in ocean waters with depths <200 m within 50 nautical miles (92.6 km) of closest coastlines.

A new methodology is developed to constrain Chinese anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from four major sectors (industry, power plants, mobile and residential) in July 2008. It combines tropospheric NO2 column retrievals from GOME-2 and OMI, taking advantage of their different passing time over China (~10:00 a.m. LT (local time) versus ~02:00 p.m.) and consistent retrieval algorithms. The approach is based on the difference of NOx columns at the overpass times of the two instruments; it thus is less susceptible to the likely systematic errors embedded in individual retrievals that are consistent with each other. Also, it explicitly accounts for diurnal variations and uncertainties of NOx emissions for individual sources. Our best top-down estimate suggests a national budget of 6.8 TgN/yr (5.5 TgN/yr for East China), close to the a priori bottom-up emission estimate from the INTEX-B mission for the year of 2006. The top-down emissions are lower than the a priori near Beijing, in the northeastern provinces and along the east coast; yet they exceed the a priori over many inland regions. Systematic errors in satellite retrievals are estimated to lead to underestimation of top-down emissions by at most 17% (most likely 10%). Effects of other factors on the top-down estimate are typically less than 15% each, including lightning, soil emissions, mixing in planetary boundary layer, anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds, magnitude of a priori emissions, assumptions on emission diurnal variations, and uncertainties in the four sectors. The a posteriori emission budget is 5.7 TgN/yr for East China.

We examine seasonal variations of carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), and their relationships observed over the course of 3 yr (2005–2007) at Miyun, a rural site 100 km north of Beijing. Monthly mean afternoon mixing ratios of CO have broad maxima in winter and a secondary peak in June. Monthly mean afternoon O3 shows a clear seasonal pattern with a major peak in June (85 ppb), a secondary peak in September (65 ppb) and minimum in winter (50–55 ppb). The seasonal cycles of O3 and CO are associated with seasonal changes in dominant synoptic pattern. Substantial interannual variability is found for CO which is attributed to the interannual variability of meteorology and emissions from biomass burning. The seasonality and magnitude of background CO and O3 derived at Miyun are consistent with observations at upwind remote continental sites. The O3–CO correlation slope is about 0.07 ppb ppb−1 on average in summer, significantly lower than the typical slope of 0.3 ppb ppb−1 reported for developed countries. The O3–CO correlation slope shows large gradients for different types of air masses (0.133 ± 0.017 ppb ppb−1 in aged urban pollution plumes and 0.047 ± 0.008 ppb ppb−1 in biomass burning plumes), suggesting that the conventional method of direct scaling the mean O3–CO slope by CO emissions to deduce O3 production rate is subject to large uncertainties if applied for China.

The Chinese government has moved aggressively since 2005 to reduce emissions of a number of pollutants including primary particulate matter (PM) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), efforts inadvertently aided since late 2008 by economic recession. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and column nitrogen dioxide (NO2) provide independent indicators of emission trends, clearly reflecting the sharp onset of the recession in the fall of 2008 and rebound of the economy in the latter half of 2009. Comparison of AOD with ground-based observations of PM over a longer period indicate that emission-control policies have not been successful in reducing concentrations of aerosol pollutants at smaller size range over industrialized regions of China. The lack of success is attributed to the increasing importance of anthropogenic secondary aerosols formed from precursor species including nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), and ammonia (NH3).

Although China has surpassed the United States as the world's largest carbon dioxide emitter, in situ measurements of atmospheric CO2 have been sparse in China. This paper analyzes hourly CO2 and its correlation with CO at Miyun, a rural site near Beijing, over a period of 51 months (Dec 2004 through Feb 2009). The CO2-CO correlation analysis evaluated separately for each hour of the day provides useful information with statistical significance even in the growing season. We found that the intercept, representing the initial condition imposed by global distribution of CO2 with influence of photosynthesis and respiration, exhibits diurnal cycles differing by season. The background CO2 (CO2,b) derived from Miyun observations is comparable to CO2 observed at a Mongolian background station to the northwest. Annual growth of overall mean CO2 at Miyun is estimated at 2.7 ppm yr−1 while that of CO2,b is only 1.7 ppm yr−1 similar to the mean growth rate at northern mid-latitude background stations. This suggests a relatively faster increase in the regional CO2 sources in China than the global average, consistent with bottom-up studies of CO2 emissions. For air masses with trajectories through the northern China boundary layer, mean winter CO2/CO correlation slopes (dCO2/dCO) increased by 2.8 ± 0.9 ppmv/ppmv or 11% from 2005–2006 to 2007–2008, with CO2 increasing by 1.8 ppmv. The increase in dCO2/dCO indicates improvement in overall combustion efficiency over northern China after winter 2007, attributed to pollution reduction measures associated with the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The observed CO2/CO ratio at Miyun is 25% higher than the bottom-up CO2/CO emission ratio, suggesting a contribution of respired CO2 from urban residents as well as agricultural soils and livestock in the observations and uncertainty in the emission estimates.

Policies to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China may have conflicting impacts on public health, soil acidification, and climate. Two scenarios for 2020, a base case without anticipated control measures and a more realistic case including such controls, are evaluated to quantify the effects of the policies on emissions and resulting environmental outcomes. Large benefits to public health can be expected from the controls, attributed mainly to reduced emissions of primary PM and gaseous PM precursors, and thus lower ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Approximately 4% of all-cause mortality in the country can be avoided (95% confidence interval: 1–7%), particularly in eastern and north-central China, regions with large population densities and high levels of PM2.5. Surface ozone levels, however, are estimated to increase in parts of those regions, despite NOX reductions. This implies VOC-limited conditions. Even with significant reduction of SO2 and NOX emissions, the controls will not significantly mitigate risks of soil acidification, judged by the exceedance levels of critical load (CL). This is due to the decrease in primary PM emissions, with the consequent reduction in deposition of alkaline base cations. Compared to 2005, even larger CL exceedances are found for both scenarios in 2020, implying that PM control may negate any recovery from soil acidification due to SO2 reductions. Noting large uncertainties, current polices to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China will not reduce climate warming, since controlling SO2 emissions also reduces reflective secondary aerosols. Black carbon emission is an important source of uncertainty concerning the effects of Chinese control policies on global temperature change. Given these conflicts, greater consideration should be paid to reconciling varied environmental objectives, and emission control strategies should target not only criteria pollutants but also species such as VOCs and CO2.

A spatial financial model using wind data derived from assimilated meteorological condition was developed to investigate the profitability and competitiveness of onshore wind power in the contiguous U.S. It considers not only the resulting estimated capacity factors for hypothetical wind farms but also the geographically differentiated costs of local grid connection. The levelized cost of wind-generated electricity for the contiguous U.S. is evaluated assuming subsidy levels from the Production Tax Credit (PTC) varying from 0 to 4 b/kWh under three cost scenarios: a reference case, a high cost case, and a low cost case. The analysis indicates that in the reference scenario, current PTC subsidies of 2.1 b/kWh are at a critical level in determining the competitiveness of wind-generated electricity compared to conventional power generation in local power market. Results from this study suggest that the potential for profitable wind power with the current PTC subsidy amounts to more than seven times existing demand for electricity in the entire U.S. Understanding the challenges involved in scaling up wind energy requires further study of the external costs associated with improvement of the backbone transmission network and integration into the power grid of the variable electricity generated from wind.

The mass concentrations of black carbon (BC) were measured continuously at Miyun, a rural site near Beijing, concurrently with some trace gases (CO, CO2, NOy, SO2) during the nonheating seasons of 2010 (April to October). The average concentration of BC was 2.26 ± 2.33 mg m−3 . About 70%–100% of the air masses arriving at the site from June to September were from the source region of Beijing and the North China Plain (NCP), while in the spring, 40% were of continental background origin. BC had moderate to strong positive correlations with CO (R2 = 0.51), NOy (R2 = 0.58), and CO2 (nonsummer, R2 = 0.54), but not with SO2 (R2 < 0.1). The observed DBC/DCO ratio was 0.0050 ± 0.0001 mg m−3 /ppbv for the regional air masses (excluding the influence of biomass burning). This ratio increased by 68% to 0.0084 ± 0.0004 mg m−3 /ppbv after excluding the influence of wet deposition. Accounting further for the impact of atmospheric processes on the observation, we derived an average top‐down BC/CO emission ratio of 0.0095 ± 0.002 mg m−3 /ppbv for the source region of Beijing and NCP that is 18%–21% lower than the average emission ratio from the bottom‐up inventory of Zhang et al. (2009), whereas the difference is substantially lower than the uncertainty of emissions for either species. The difference between the mean bottom‐up and top‐down emission ratios is most likely to be attributed to the residential sector, which needs to have a lower share in the total emissions of BC or a much lower BC/CO emission ratio. The industry and transportation sectors are found to be dominant sources of BC from Beijing and the NCP rather than from the residential sector as suggested by the bottom‐up inventory.