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Mitrovica, Jerry

True polar wander (TPW), a reorientation of the rotation axis relative to the solid body, is driven by mass redistribution on the surface or within the planet and is stabilized by two aspects of the planet's viscoelastic response: the delayed viscous readjustment of the rotational bulge and the elastic stresses in the lithosphere. The latter, following Willemann (1984), is known as remnant bulge stabilization. In the absence of a remnant bulge, the rotation of a terrestrial planet is said to be inherently unstable. Theoretical treatments have been developed to treat the final (equilibrium) state in this case and the time-dependent TPW toward this state, including nonlinear approaches that assume slow changes in the inertia tensor. Moreover, remnant bulge stabilization has been incorporated into both equilibrium and linearized, time-dependent treatments of rotational stability. We extend the work of Ricard et al. (1993) to derive a nonlinear, time-dependent theory of TPW that incorporates stabilization by both the remnant bulge and viscous readjustment of the rotational bulge. We illustrate the theory using idealized surface loading scenarios applied to models of both Earth and Mars. We demonstrate that the inclusion of remnant bulge stabilization reduces both the amplitude and timescale of TPW relative to calculations in which this stabilization is omitted. Furthermore, given current estimates of mantle viscosity for both planets, our calculations indicate that departures from the equilibrium orientation of the rotation axis in response to forcings with timescale of 1 Myr or greater are significant for Earth but negligible for Mars.

We derive a generalized theory for gravitationally self-consistent, static sea level variations on earth models of arbitrary complexity that takes into account the redistribution of sediments. The theory is an extension of previous work that incorporated, into the governing equations, shoreline migration due to local sea level variations and changes in the geometry of grounded, marine-based ice. In addition, we use viscoelastic Love number theory to present a version of the new theory valid for spherically symmetric earth models. The Love number theory accounts for the gravitational, deformational and rotational effects of the sediment redistribution. As a first, illustrative application of the new theory, we compute the perturbation in sea level driven by an idealized pulse of sediment transport into the Gulf of Mexico. We demonstrate that incorporating a gravitationally self-consistent water load in this case significantly improves the accuracy of sea level predictions relative to previous simplified treatments of the sediment redistribution.

We outline a linearized rotational stability theory for predicting the time dependence of true polar wander (TPW) on a Maxwell viscoelastic body in response to mantle convective loading. The new theory is based on recent advances in ice age rotation theory. A comparison between predictions based on the new theory and analytic expressions for equilibrium (infinite-time) TPW on planetary models with elastic lithospheres demonstrates that the linearized theory can, in the case of loading at mid-latitudes, predict TPW of over 20 degrees to better than 5 per cent accuracy. We present predictions of TPW for loading with periodic and net ramp-up time histories. Moreover, we compare the time dependence of TPW under assumptions consistent with the canonical equilibrium stability theory adopted in most previous analyses of convection-induced TPW, and a stability theory that includes two effects that have not been considered in previous geophysical analyses: (1) the so-called 'remnant rotational bulge' associated with the imperfect reorientation of the rotational bulge due to the presence of an elastic lithosphere; and (2) a stable (over the timescale of the forcing) excess ellipticity. As a first application of the new theory, we consider recent inferences of rapid (order 1 Myr) TPW motion of amplitude 10 degrees-20 degrees during the Late Cretaceous. We conclude that excursions of this amplitude and timescale are physically implausible.

Palaeomagnetic records spanning the last 100 Myr indicate that the reorientation of the Earth's rotation axis relative to the surface geography (or true polar wander, TPW) has been confined to a range less than 6 degrees from its present location. This limited TPW is unexpected given that a canonical theory for the rotational stability of the Earth generally predicts that mantle convection should drive larger displacements of the pole. We argue, following earlier work, that the muted TPW is a consequence of the stable, excess flattening of the Earth's figure driven by plate subduction and deep mantle superplumes rising beneath Africa and the Pacific. In particular, we show that the TPW record is consistent with convection-induced perturbations to the Earth's inertia tensor of order 20 per cent or less of the excess flattening over the last 100 Myr; this upper bound will be higher if the Earth's lithosphere retains any significant elastic strength over such long timescales. This inferred stability of the Earth's figure has important implications for our understanding of deep mantle structure and the long-term, global-scale evolution of the Earth.