Person:
Carnegie, Nicole

Profile Picture

Email Address

AA Acceptance Date

Birth Date

Research Projects

Organizational Units

Job Title

Last Name

Carnegie

First Name

Nicole

Name

Carnegie, Nicole
Author's Publications: search.filters.isAuthorOfPublication.342b7947-cb62-4def-a69a-9084f90a2ac3

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    Publication
    Linkage of Viral Sequences among HIV-Infected Village Residents in Botswana: Estimation of Linkage Rates in the Presence of Missing Data
    (Public Library of Science, 2014) Carnegie, Nicole; Wang, Rui; Novitsky, Vladimir; DeGruttola, Victor
    Linkage analysis is useful in investigating disease transmission dynamics and the effect of interventions on them, but estimates of probabilities of linkage between infected people from observed data can be biased downward when missingness is informative. We investigate variation in the rates at which subjects' viral genotypes link across groups defined by viral load (low/high) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) status using blood samples from household surveys in the Northeast sector of Mochudi, Botswana. The probability of obtaining a sequence from a sample varies with viral load; samples with low viral load are harder to amplify. Pairwise genetic distances were estimated from aligned nucleotide sequences of HIV-1C env gp120. It is first shown that the probability that randomly selected sequences are linked can be estimated consistently from observed data. This is then used to develop estimates of the probability that a sequence from one group links to at least one sequence from another group under the assumption of independence across pairs. Furthermore, a resampling approach is developed that accounts for the presence of correlation across pairs, with diagnostics for assessing the reliability of the method. Sequences were obtained for 65% of subjects with high viral load (HVL, n = 117), 54% of subjects with low viral load but not on ART (LVL, n = 180), and 45% of subjects on ART (ART, n = 126). The probability of linkage between two individuals is highest if both have HVL, and lowest if one has LVL and the other has LVL or is on ART. Linkage across groups is high for HVL and lower for LVL and ART. Adjustment for missing data increases the group-wise linkage rates by 40–100%, and changes the relative rates between groups. Bias in inferences regarding HIV viral linkage that arise from differential ability to genotype samples can be reduced by appropriate methods for accommodating missing data.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Publication
    What Drives the US and Peruvian HIV Epidemics in Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM)?
    (Public Library of Science, 2012) Goodreau, Steven M.; Carnegie, Nicole; Vittinghoff, Eric; Lama, Javier R.; Sanchez, Jorge; Grinsztejn, Beatriz; Koblin, Beryl A.; Mayer, Kenneth; Buchbinder, Susan P.
    In this work, we estimate the proportions of transmissions occurring in main vs. casual partnerships, and by the sexual role, infection stage, and testing and treatment history of the infected partner, for men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US and Peru. We use dynamic, stochastic models based in exponential random graph models (ERGMs), obtaining inputs from multiple large-scale MSM surveys. Parallel main partnership and casual sexual networks are simulated. Each man is characterized by age, race, circumcision status, sexual role behavior, and propensity for unprotected anal intercourse (UAI); his history is modeled from entry into the adult population, with potential transitions including HIV infection, detection, treatment, AIDS diagnosis, and death. We implemented two model variants differing in assumptions about acute infectiousness, and assessed sensitivity to other key inputs. Our two models suggested that only 4–5% (Model 1) or 22–29% (Model 2) of HIV transmission results from contacts with acute-stage partners; the plurality (80–81% and 49%, respectively) stem from chronic-stage partners and the remainder (14–16% and 27–35%, respectively) from AIDS-stage partners. Similar proportions of infections stem from partners whose infection is undiagnosed (24–31%), diagnosed but untreated (36–46%), and currently being treated (30–36%). Roughly one-third of infections (32–39%) occur within main partnerships. Results by country were qualitatively similar, despite key behavioral differences; one exception was that transmission from the receptive to insertive partner appears more important in Peru (34%) than the US (21%). The broad balance in transmission contexts suggests that education about risk, careful assessment, pre-exposure prophylaxis, more frequent testing, earlier treatment, and risk-reduction, disclosure, and adherence counseling may all contribute substantially to reducing the HIV incidence among MSM in the US and Peru.