Person:

Salomon, Joshua

Gretchen Stevens and colleagues present the GATHER statement, which seeks to promote good practice in the reporting of global health estimates.

Background: As highly effective hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapies emerge, data are needed to inform the development of interventions to improve HCV treatment rates. We used simulation modeling to estimate the impact of loss to follow-up on HCV treatment outcomes and to identify intervention strategies likely to provide good value for the resources invested in them. Methods: We used a Monte Carlo state-transition model to simulate a hypothetical cohort of chronically HCV-infected individuals recently screened positive for serum HCV antibody. We simulated four hypothetical intervention strategies (linkage to care; treatment initiation; integrated case management; peer navigator) to improve HCV treatment rates, varying efficacies and costs, and identified strategies that would most likely result in the best value for the resources required for implementation. Main measures Sustained virologic responses (SVRs), life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), costs from health system and program implementation perspectives, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: We estimate that imperfect follow-up reduces the real-world effectiveness of HCV therapies by approximately 75%. In the base case, a modestly effective hypothetical peer navigator program maximized the number of SVRs and QALE, with an ICER compared to the next best intervention of $48,700/quality-adjusted life year. Hypothetical interventions that simultaneously addressed multiple points along the cascade provided better outcomes and more value for money than less costly interventions targeting single steps. The 5-year program cost of the hypothetical peer navigator intervention was $14.5 million per 10,000 newly diagnosed individuals. Conclusions: We estimate that imperfect follow-up during the HCV cascade of care greatly reduces the real-world effectiveness of HCV therapy. Our mathematical model shows that modestly effective interventions to improve follow-up would likely be cost-effective. Priority should be given to developing and evaluating interventions addressing multiple points along the cascade rather than options focusing solely on single points.

Potential cost-effective barriers in cost-effectiveness studies mean that budgetary impact analyses should also be included in post-2015 Sustainable Development Goal projects says Joshua Salomon and colleagues.

Dyslipidemia is a primary driver for chronic cardiovascular conditions and there is no comprehensive literature about its management in South Africa. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of dyslipidemia in rural South Africa and how they are impacted by different behaviors and non-modifiable factors. To fulfill this objective we recruited for this cohort study adults aged ≥40 years residing in the Agincourt sub-district of Mpumalanga Province. Data collection included socioeconomic and clinical data, anthropometric measures, blood pressure (BP), HIV-status, point-of-care glucose and lipid levels. Framingham CVD Risk Score was ascribed to patients based upon categories for 10 year cardiovascular risk of low (<3%), moderate (≥3% and <15%), high (≥15% and <30%), and very high (≥30%).LDL cholesterol control by risk category was defined according to South African Guidelines. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify factors that were significantly associated with dyslipidemia and awareness of dyslipidemia From 5,059 respondents a total of 4247 subjects (83.9%) had their cholesterol levels measured and were included in our analysis. Overall, 67.3% (2860) of these met criteria for dyslipidemia, only 30 (1.05%) were aware of their condition, and only 21 subjects (0.73%) were on treatment. The majority have abnormalities in triglycerides (59.3%). As cardiovascular risk increased the rates of lipid control according to LDL level dropped. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that being overweight was predictive of dyslipidemia (OR 1.76; 95%CI 1.51–2.05, p<0.001) and dyslipidemia awareness (OR 2.58; 95%CI 1.19–5.58; p = 0.017). In conclusion, the very low awareness and treatment of dyslipidemia in this cohort indicate a greater need for systematic screening and education within the population and demonstrate that there are multiple opportunities to allay this burden.

Background: The updated national guidelines for cardiovascular risk assessment and lipid modification in the UK and US expand the indications for statin therapy in primary prevention to adults with moderate risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but many adults at high CVD risk remain untreated in both countries. We set out to identify treatment gaps in English and American adults at moderate and high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and to estimate the number of CVD events that would be prevented from expanding statin therapy to those who are currently untreated. Methods: We used nationally representative samples of 10,375 English adults and 7,687 US adults aged 40–75 years and free of existing CVD from the Health Survey for England 2009–2013, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007–2012 in the US. We used the risk algorithms and the risk thresholds for statin therapy recommended by each country’s national guideline to categorize the survey participants into moderate-risk (≥10% to <20% 10-year risk of CVD in England and ≥7.5% to <20% risk in the US) or high-risk (≥20%risk) and simulated the number of events that would be prevented from expansion of statin therapy to those currently untreated. Results: Close to half of adults at high CVD risk in England (46.0%) and the US (49.7%) were not receiving statins. Expanding statin use to 1.45 million high-risk adults in England would save 101,000 (95% CI = 81,000–120,000) CVD events in the next 10 years compared with 128,000 (103,000–154,000) CVD events that would be prevented from expanding treatment to 3.64 million untreated moderate-risk adults. In the US, expanding statin use to 5.27 million untreated high-risk adults would save 384,000 (305,000–461,000) CVD events over 10 years compared with 616,000 (493,000–738,000) CVD events that would be prevented from treating 20.29 million untreated moderate-risk adults. Conclusions: In both England and the US, expanding statin therapy to untreated moderate-risk adults would prevent a comparable number of events as expanding statin use to a much smaller number of currently untreated high-risk adults. A large potential for CVD prevention remains from improving coverage of statin therapy among high-risk adults.