Controlling Spatiotemporal Chaos in a Realistic El Niño Prediction Model

Abstract

A method for controlling low-order chaotic behavior of continuous spatiotemporal systems is developed and demonstrated in a complex, realistic 3D partial differential equation model that is used successfully for predicting El Niño events in the equatorial Pacific. An unstable periodic orbit that involves a full-domain oscillation is stabilized using a feedback control applied to a single degree of freedom at a carefully chosen single “choke point” in space. A general criterion is presented for determining the optimal points in reconstructed delay-coordinate phase space at which to apply the feedback control.