Task Routing for Prediction Tasks

Abstract

We study principles and methods for task routing that aim to harness people’s abilities to jointly contribute to a task and to route tasks to others who can provide further contributions. In the particular context of prediction tasks, the goal is to efficiently obtain accurate probability assessments for an event of interest. We introduce routing scoring rules for promoting collaborative behavior, that bring truthfully contributing information and optimally routing tasks into a Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium under common knowledge about agents’ abilities. However, for networks where agents only have local knowledge about other agents’ abilities, optimal routing requires complex reasoning over the history and future routing decisions of users outside of local neighborhoods. Avoiding this, we introduce a class of local routing rules that isolate simple routing decisions in equilibrium, while still promoting effective routing decisions. We present simulation results that show that following routing decisions induced by local routing rules lead to efficient information aggregation.