Exit Polls: Better or Worse Since the 2000 Election?

Abstract

There have been so many problems with exit polls in the last four national elections that news organizations approach 2008 election night coverage without a great deal of confidence in what those polls will show. The six news organizations that jointly conduct exit polls, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, NBC, and the Associated Press have been on a roller coaster ride since Election Day 2000, with a great many successes, some spectacular failures, enormous efforts to “fix” the polls, and millions of dollars spent in the process. This paper will review the concerns with exit polls identified by the news organizations after the 2000 election mistakes, and update progress made since that time. It will also look at new concerns about exit polling raised since the 2000 election.