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Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the United States

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cantoni,pons_does-context-outweigh.pdf (1.8 MB)

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2022-04-01

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10.1257/aer.20201660

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American Economic Association
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Cantoni, Enrico, and Vincent Pons. "Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the U.S." American Economic Review 112, no. 4 (April 2022): 1226–1272.

Abstract

We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a US-wide voter-level panel, 2008–2018, we examine voters who relocate across state and county lines, tracking changes in registration, turnout, and party affiliation to estimate location and individual fixed effects in a value-added model. Location explains 37 percent of the cross-state variation in turnout (to 63 percent for individual characteristics) and an only slightly smaller share of variation in party affiliation. Place effects are larger for young and White voters.

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Economics and Econometrics

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https://nrs.harvard.edu/URN-3:HUL.INSTREPOS:37377134

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