Global Trends in Innovation Patterns: A Complexity Approach

Abstract

Technological know-how in a country shapes its growth potential and competitive- ness. Scientific publications, patents, and international trade data offer complementary insights into how ideas from science, technology, and production evolve, combine, and are transformed into capabilities. Analyzing their trajectories enables a more comprehen- sive and multifaceted understanding of the whole innovation process, from generating ideas to internationally commercializing products. We analyze the production patterns in these three domains, documenting the differences between advanced and emerging mar- ket economies. We find that future income, patenting, and publishing growth correlate with the economic complexity indices calculated from these domains. Capabilities em- bedded in the country also shape future diversification opportunities and make the inno- vation process path dependent. Lastly, we also show that diversification opportunities can be inferred across innovation domains.