Factors of Climate Change and Their Influence on Lyme Disease Infection Rates

Abstract

Lyme disease is carried solely by the Blacklegged Tick, or Ixodes scapularis, which transmit it from host animal to host animal. I. scapularis causes most Lyme disease infections as they are the best at feeding on animals that carry the disease and live a long enough life where they can transmit the disease to another animal. Not everywhere in the world has Lyme disease. The environment must be conducive, and ticks must be able to molt, reproduce safely, and live long enough to carry the disease. One such place they are prevalent is the state of Pennsylvania. With the variety of flora, fauna, and temperate climate, I. scapularis flourishes there. But the question is, what makes them grow so well and continue to increase the Lyme infections they cause? This study analyzes how climate change factors – snow fall, precipitation, and average air temperature – affect the number of Lyme disease cases. Within the timespan of 2008 to 2019, data on Lyme cases, snowfall, precipitation, and average air temperature in each Pennsylvanian county was analyzed and used to calculate the rate of change values. The rate of change values represented positive and negative slopes of each data set. Those slopes were compared and contrasted to see which had the most influence on the slopes from the Lyme disease data set. Between snow fall, precipitation, and average temperature, precipitation is the climate change factor that most influences whether Lyme disease cases rise or fall. This study provides evidence in the form of line graphs, projected values, and calculated rates of change to support this theory.