Aid That Pays Dividends: The Long-Term Impact of Gavi’s Vaccination Programs on Education and Health

Abstract

This thesis investigates the broader developmental impacts of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, on educational outcomes, mortality rates and vaccination coverage. While vaccination is widely recognized as a highly cost-effective form of foreign aid, most evaluations focus on its immediate health effects. This study extends that evaluation by estimating Gavi’s impact not only on child mortality and vaccine coverage but also on educational attainment—a critical indicator of long-term development. Using a difference-in-differences strategy with country-fixed effects and a global time trend, I compare countries before and after they received Gavi funding to similar countries that never did. I rely on raw household-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) rather than administrative or modelled data to avoid bias and circular reasoning. Results show that Gavi funding significantly reduced under-five and infant mortality and increased primary school attendance by nearly 7%. While effects on vaccination coverage were less consistent, the findings point to strong mortality and morbidity effects, explaining the increase in education. By introducing education as an outcome variable, using a cleaner identification strategy, and leveraging over two decades of data, this thesis contributes new empirical evidence on how targeted health interventions can promote broader development goals.