Political power grows out of the valves of processing facilities – Chinese economic statecraft in the global supply chain of critical minerals

Abstract

Decades of sustained investment in the mining industry have given China a dominant position in the global supply chain of critical minerals. Many countries have come to view this development with anxiety, as increased use of supply chain weaponization has heightened perceived risks arising from asymmetrical interdependence. In recent years, these concerns have been amplified by a succession of export control measures that China has instated to restrict the global supply of critical minerals and related technology. This thesis uses an indicator-driven model on a data set of 21 critical minerals to identify shared characteristics underlying ten cases of export control measures that China has imposed on critical minerals since 2023. The findings of this thesis suggest that China is most likely to leverage its coercive potential when it has a chokepoint-like control over both the primary production and processing nodes of a critical mineral. Other variables, namely the substitutability potential and relevance for defense sector applications, yield mixed results and appear to be of secondary importance. The findings further suggest that China no longer exclusively uses its critical mineral export controls to reactively counter comparable measures imposed on it, but to also proactively compel others, even in matters unrelated to trade.