Publication: Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments
Open/View Files
Date
2014
Authors
Published Version
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you.
Citation
Brown, Jennifer, and Dylan B. Minor. "Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments." Management Science 60, no. 12 (December 2014): 3087–3102.
Research Data
Abstract
We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect—the stronger the expected future competitor, the lower the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage; and (2) an effort spillover effect—previous effort reduces the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage. We test our theory predictions using data from high-stakes tournaments. Empirical results suggest that shadow and spillover effects influence match outcomes and have already been priced into betting markets.
Description
Other Available Sources
Keywords
elimination tournament, dynamic contest, contest design, effort choice, betting markets
Terms of Use
This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material (LAA), as set forth at Terms of Service