Populist governments and democratic backsliding

Abstract

Evidence from V-Dem suggests cases of growing illiberalism in recent decades - but also some countries where democracy has proved stable or even strengthened during these years. What has been driving these diverse trajectories? This chapter starts to unpack the theoretical debates and considers new empirical evidence analyzed using mixed methods to explore the links potentially connecting populist governments and backsliding. Part I defines the concept and logic of populist discourse and summarizes the previous theoretical and empirical literature. Part II compares the position of a wide range of political parties towards both liberal democracy and populism. The comparison further confirms that many, but not all, political parties employing populist discourse often oppose checks and balances on executive power, as well as liberal democratic principles, norms and practices. Part III analyses longitudinal cross-national data during the first quarter of the 21st century to determine the dynamic trajectories of democratic regimes worldwide under both populist and non-populist governments. To replicate previous studies in Europe and Latin America, difference-in-difference time-series panel regression models are employed to estimate causal effects through a quasi-experimental technique using observational data from treatment (populist-led governments) and control groups (non-populist governments) in power for heterogeneous periods during the last 25 years. Part V explores the processes of backsliding in more depth, comparing six case-studies of populist governments, including longitudinal trends in the horizontal and vertical checks designed to prevent the executive abuse of power. The selected examples include presidential executives in Jair Bolsonaro’s Brazil, Recep Erdogan’s Turkey, and Donald Trump’s USA, as well as prime ministerial governments in Viktor Orban’s Hungary, Narendra Modi’s India, and Jarosław Kaczyński’s Poland. The conclusion in Part VI summarizes the key findings and considers their broader theoretical and policy implications. The chapter provides further evidence confirming the links connecting the rhetoric of populist parties with their endorsement of illiberal policies; at the same time, many exceptions to these findings can be observed, suggesting that diverse varieties of populist parties exist, even among neighboring states. The paper is drawn from Chapter 4 of my forthcoming book on The Cultural Roots of Democratic Backsliding (OUP 2027)