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How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Four Proposals
(Center for International Development at Harvard University, 201) Frankel, Jeffrey
Countries that specialize in commodities have in recent years been hit by high volatility in world prices for their exports. This paper suggests four ways that commodity-exporters can make themselves less vulnerable. (1) Option contracts can be used to hedge against short-term declines in the commodity price without giving up the upside, as Mexico has shown. (2) Commodity-linked bonds can hedge longer-term risk, and often have a natural ultimate counter-party in multinational corporations that depend on the commodity as an input. (3) The well-documented pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy among commodity exporters can be reduced by insulating official forecasters against an optimism bias, as Chile has shown. (4) Monetary policy can be made automatically more counter-cyclical, judged by the criterion of currency appreciation in reaction to positive terms-of-trade shocks, under either of two regimes: peggers can add the export commodity to a currency basket (CCB, for “Currency-plus-Commodity Basket”) and others can target Nominal Income instead of the CPI.
Venom Neutralization by Rattlesnake Serum Albumin
(American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 1969-06-20) Clark, William; Voris, H. K.
The blood serum of the eastern diamond back rattlesnake (Crotalus adamanteus) neutralizes lethal doses of C. adamanteus venom in mice. The protective capacity of the serum is associated with the serum albumin, rather than the immunoglobulin fraction of the blood. Neither the serum nor its albumin fraction form precipitin bands on immunophoresis against venom.
Annotated Bibliography on Ecological Aspects of Regional Development
(1974-06) Clark, William
This bibliography on ecological aspects of regional development was prepared as a background document for the SCOPE (International Council of Scientific Unions, Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment) Workshop on Impact Studies in the Environment. It is directed at regional administrators responsible for environmental impact assessment, and seeks to provide them with a critical, digestible introduction to the relevant ecological literature.
Project Status Report: Ecology and Environment Project
(1974-06-21) Holling, C.S.; Bell, D.E.; Dantzig, G.B.; Fiering, M.B.; Jones, D.D.; Rashid, Z.; Velimirovic, H.; Walters, C.J.; Winkler, C.; Clark, William
We present here the extended outline and copies of the illustrations used in the Status Report of the IIASA Ecology and Environment Project, presented at Schloss Laxenburg on 21 June 1974. Section 1., "General Review", is covered in the outline. Section 2., "A Case Study of Ecosystem Management", is the subject of a major monograph now in preparation. Section 3., on Selected Conceptual Developments, is in part documented in IIASA Research Reports RR-73-3 and RR-74-3.
A Case of Forest Ecosystem Pest Management
(International Canadian Conference on Applied Systems Analysis, 1975) Clark, William; Holling, C.S.; Dantzig, G.B.; Baskerville, C.; Jones, D.D.
The boreal forests of North America have, for centuries, experienced periodic outbreaks of a defoliating insect called the Spruce Budworm. In anyone outbreak cycle a major proportion of the mature softwood forest in effected areas can die, with major consequences to the economy and employment of regions like New Brunswick, which are highly dependent on the forest industry. An extensive insecticide spraying programme initiated in New Brunswick in 1951 has succeeded in minimizing tree mortality, but at the price of maintaining incipient outbreak conditions over an area considerably more extensive than in the past. The present management approach is, therefore, particularly sensitive to unexpected shifts in economic, social and regulatory constraints, and to unanticipated behavior of the forest ecosystem. Most major environmental problems in the world today are characterized by similar basic ingredients: high variability in space and time, large scale, and a troubled management history. Because of their enormous complexity there has been little concerted effort to apply systems analysis techniques to the coordinated development of effective descriptions of, and prescriptions for, such problems. The Budworm-forest system seemed to present an admirable focus for a case study with two objectives. The first, of course, was to attempt to develop sets of alternate policies appropriate for the specific problem. But the more significant purpose was to see just how far we could stretch the state of the art capabilities in ecology, modeling, optimization, policy design and evaluation to apply them to complex ecosystem management problems. Three principal issues in any resource environmental problem challenge existing techniques. The resources that provide the food, fibre and recreational opportunities for society are integral parts of ecosystems characterized by complex interrelationships of many species among each other and with the land, water and climate in which they live. The interactions of these systems are highly non-linear and have a significant spatial component. Events in anyone point in space, just as at any moment of time, can affect events at other points in space and time. The resulting high order of dimensionality becomes all the more significant as these ecological systems couple with complex social and economic ones. The second prime challenge is that we have only partial knowledge of the variables and relationships governing the systems. A large body of theoretical and experimental analysis and data has led to an identification of the general form and kind of functional relations existing between organisms. nut only occasionally is there a rich body of data specific to anyone situation. To develop an analysis which implicitly or explicitly presumes sufficient knowledge is therefore to guarantee management policies that become more the source of the problem than the source of the solution. In a particularly challenging way present ecological management situations require concepts and techniques which cope creatively with the uncertainties and unknowns that in fact pervade most of our major social, economic and environmental problems. The third and final challenge reflects the previous two: How can we design policies that achieve specific social objectives and yet are still "robust"? Policies which, once set in play, produce intelligently linked ecological, social and economic systems that can absorb the unexpected events and unknowns that will inevitably appear. These "unexpecteds" might be the one in a thousand year drought that perversely occurs this year; the appearance or disappearance of key species, the emergence of new economic and regulatory constrains or the shift of societal objectives. We must learn to design in a way which shifts our emphasis away from minimizing the probability of failure, towards minimizing the cost of those failures which will inevitably occur.
Notes on Resilience Measures
(1975-07) Clark, William
The author presents some points taken from his notes on a Resilience Measures Presentation by C.S. Holling (IIASA, 11 July 1975) and suggests that they should probably be dealt with explicitly before a final document is prepared.
Hypotheticality, Resilience and Option Foreclosure: Summary Notes of a IIASA Workshop
(International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1975-07) Clark, William; Swain, H.
An informal workshop on the themes of hypotheticality, resilience, and option foreclosure was held in Laxenburg on 7 July 1975. This Working Paper is meant to serve as an informal record of the workshop. It includes the following material: -- PART I: Invitation and Outline for the Workshop -- PART II: Rapporteur's Notes - H. Swain; Rapporteur's Notes - Wm. Clark -- PART III: Notes on Certainty, Uncertainty, and the Unknown (proposal of definitions for the workshop) -- PART IV: A bibliography of relevant documents.
Methodological Problems in the Modeling and Analysis of Ecological Systems
(International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1975-08) Clark, William; Walters, C.J.
I would like to give you an overview of basic ecological modeling and analysis problems by discussing three things. First, I will try to explain the general attitude of systems-oriented ecologists towards their subject matter. This is a different perspective from that of many here, and we will almost certainly fail to understand each other if you imagine us to be, say, economists with an interest in animals. Second, I will review those structural characteristics of ecological systems which have made their analysis particularly difficult. We like to think that it is at least in part these difficulties which have kept us rather behind the rest of you in a number of methods-related areas. Finally, I'll give a brief picture of the kinds of dynamic and stability behavior which we encounter in real and model ecological systems, using as examples cases presently under investigation at IIASA and' available for study at this workshop.
Towards a Structural View of Resilience
(IIASA, 1975-08) Holling, C.S.; Jones, D.D.; Clark, William
The result of resilience is persistence: the maintenance of certain characteristic behavioral properties in the face of stress, strain and surprise. But the origins of this resilient behavior lie in the structure of the systems which concern us. Our need as policy analysts may only be one of comparative measures: Which system is more resilient? But as active designers -- as engineers, managers, or responsible policy advisors -- we need to be able to say what mechanisms or relationships make a system resilient, and what actions we can take to make it more or less so.
Looking at Ourselves: Thoughts on Process and Product in Applied Systems Analysis
(International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1975-09) Clark, William
This paper raises some issues concerning the practice and utilization of applied systems analysis (ASA). Our present concept of good ASA necessarily implies two assumptions: (1) It is socially desirable to make decisions in the most rational manner possible, and (2) The details of the ASA process, do not significantly effect the nature of the ASA product. In the body of this paper I argue that these assumptions are at very least open to question, and in all likelihood quite unjustifiable. Present practice relies completely on the validity on these assumptions and criticism of the latter necessarily implies some fairly fundamental misgivings as to the appropriate conduct and utilization of ASA. I do not seek to denigrate the real strengths and advantages of good ASA, and do not have in mind any specific alternatives to the viewpoint expressed by Raiffa above. But ASA and even IIASA are finally beginning to come of age, and both could surely benefit from a bit of serious, if unaccustomed, introspection at this point in their histories.
Intertemporal Indicator Evaluation: A Preliminary Note on Problems for Evaluating Time Stream Data for Environmental Policy Analysis
(IIASA, 1976-01) Clark, William; Bell, D.E.
Assumptions regarding the aggregation of time stream data (e.g. "discounting") are crucial in the evaluation of regional development proposals and the assessment of environmental impacts. Nonetheless, present practice reflects a great deal of confusion, ambiguity, caprice, and downright error in the calculation and implementation of such assumptions. We present in this paper the outlines of an approach to inter-temporal indicator evaluation for use in the analysis of regional development alternatives. Our ultimate objective is pragmatic: We wish to develop a practical framework for the reduction and comparison of time stream data for evaluation of public programs and policies. As a foundation for this approach, however, it has been necessary critically to review the existing controversy on intertemporal aggregation in a public policy context, and to clarify the practical implications of the, points at issue. Three interrelated themes pervade this review and provide a conceptual focus for the work.
Spatial Structure Relationship in a Forest Insect System: Simulation Models and Analysis
(IIASA, 1979) Clark, William
This paper analyses relationships among dispersal, spatial heterogeneity, and local ecological processes in the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) - boreal forest system of eastern North America. A range of simulation and topological models are developed to reflect various hyotheses concerning those relationships. Model predictions are treated as guides to effective experimental design and efficient allocation of research priorities, rather than as ends in themselves. The analysis demonstrates the shortcomings of studies treating either dispersal or local processes alone, and argues instead for an integrated approach to spatial structure research in population ecology.
Ecological policy design: lessons from a study of forest/pest management
(Elsevier, 1979) Holling, C.S.; Jones, D.D.; Clark, William
Process Models, Equilibrium Structures, And Population-Dynamics: Formulation And Testing Of Realistic Theory In Ecology
(1979) Clark, William; Holling, C.S.
Food, Health, and Population: Policy Analysis and Development Priorities in Low-Income Countries
(IIASA, 1979-06) Clark, William; Johnston, B.F.
This paper presents a policy analysis of rural development strategies in low-income countries. Governments, development agencies, and scholars are now giving increased attention to structuring and supplementing growth strategies to reduce the most serious deprivations of poverty. The objectives of such strategies are inevitably multiple and conflicting, with any given allocation of development resources incurring a high opportunity cost in terms of activities foregone. Furthermore, the inherent complexities of the issues involved have led to great uncertainty and disagreement regarding the choice of development strategies that are likely to be most effective. Too often, this disagreement has prohibited emergence of even the minimal consensus required for effective action. No research, however good, will eliminate the uncertainties of development. No models, however comprehensive, will reveal "optimal" strategies for development in the real world. We argue that a systematic analysis of the major components and interactions of a rural development strategy can nonetheless facilitate the ongoing process of development policy design, implementation, and improvement. The major focus of our analysis is policy-feasibility, not optimality. We seek to define the constraints that determine the rural development objectives that are in fact obtainable with existing resources and organizational skills. We particularly emphasize the dominant constraints imposed by the structural and demographic characteristics of the low-income countries, showing that the concentration of population and poverty in rural areas will continue to be a distinguishing feature of these countries into the next century. Equally important are the interactions of malnutrition, infection, and unregulated fertility which continue to inflict high mortality and morbidity rates on infants and small children, despite the overall improvements in mortality rates and longevity of recent decades. We also analyze the relationships among various socioeconomic factors, fertility rates, and population growth, and explore their implications for the design of feasible development policies. The lack of consensus required for effective action is especially evident in the case of nutrition-related aspects of development programs. We therefore devote special attention to the interrelationships among food intake, nutrition, and health. In our view, the essential problem is to strike a suitable balance between production-oriented and consumption-oriented (i.e., redistribution and service) activities in development strategies. Toward this end, we analyze the complementary as well as the competitive relationships between such activities. Based on this analysis, we propose a two-pronged approach emphasizing a broad-based strategy for agricultural development, and an integrated approach to nutrition, health, and family planning services which focuses on inexpensive preventive and promotive activities. We stress the need to focus the debate on these issues through a typology that recognizes the constraints and characteristics of the low-income countries. Finally, we argue that any development strategy is necessarily an experiment. It is essential that we learn how to learn from such experiences and from this how to contribute more effectively to a continuing process of adaptive policy design, implementation, and re-design.
Lessons for Ecological Policy Design: A Case Study of Ecosystem Management
(Elsevier BV, 1979-06) Clark, William; Jones, Dixon D.; Holling, C.S.
This paper explores the prospects for combining elements of the ecological and policy sciences to form a substantive and effective science of ecological policy design. This exploration is made through a case study whose specific focus is the management problem posed by competition between man and an insect (the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana) for utilization of coniferous forests in the Canadian Province of New Brunswick. We used this case study as a practical testing ground in which we examined the relative strengths, weaknesses, and complementarities of various aspects of the policy design process. Where existing approaches proved wanting, we sought to develop alternatives and to test them in turn. In particular, we used a combination of simulation modeling and topological approaches to analyze the space--time dynamics of this ecosystem under a variety of natural and managed conditions. Explicit consideration was given to the development of invalidation tests for establishing the limits of model credibility. An array of economic, social, and environmental indicators was generated by the model, enabling managers and policy makers to evaluate meaningfully the performance of the system under a variety of management proposals. Simplified versions of the models were constructed to accommodate several optimization procedures, including dynamic programming, which produced trial policies for a range of possible objectives. These trial policies were tested in the more complex model versions and heuristically modified in dialogue with New Brunswick's forest managers. We explored the role of utility functions for simplifying and contrasting policy performance measures, paying special attention to questions of time preferences and discounting. Finally, the study was shaped by a commitment to transfer the various models and policy design capabilities from their original academic setting to the desks and minds of the practicing managers and politicians. An array of workshops, model gaming sessions, and nontraditional communication formats was developed and tested in pursuit of this goal.
Witches, Floods, and Wonder Drugs: Historical Perspectives on Risk Management
(Springer, 1980) Clark, William
Risk is a people problem, and people have been contending with it for a very long time indeed. I extract some lessons from this historical record and explore their implications for current and future practice of risk management. Socially relevant risk is not uncertainty of outcome, or violence of event, or toxicity of substance, or anything of the sort. Rather, it is a perceived inability to cope satisfactorily with the world around us. Improving our ability to cope is essentially a management problem: a problem of identifying and carrying out the actions which will change the rules of the game so that the game becomes more to our liking. To cope better is to better understand the nature of risks and how they develop. It is naive and destructive to pretend that such understanding can carry with it the certainties and completeness of traditional science. Risk management lies in the realm of trans-science, of ill-structured problems, of messes. In analyzing risk messes, the central need is to evaluate, order, and structure inevitably incomplete and conflicting knowledge so that the management acts can be chosen with the best possible understanding of current knowledge, its limitations, and its implications. This requires an undertaking in policy analysis, rather than science. One product of such analyses is a better conceptualization of “feasibility” in risk management. Past and present efforts have too often and too uncritically equated the feasible with the desirable. Results have been both frustrating and wasteful. Another is an emphasis on the design of resilient or “soft-fail” coping strategies. The essential issue is not optimality or efficiency, but robustness to the unknowns on which actual coping performance is contingent. The most important lesson of both experience and analysis is that societies’ abilities to cope with the unknown depend on the flexibility of their institutions and individuals, and on their capability to experiment freely with alternative forms of adaptation to the risks which threaten them. Neither the witch hunting hysterics nor the mindlessly rigid regulations characterizing so much of our present chapter in the history of risk management say much for our ability to learn from the past.
The Carbon-Dioxide Review
(1983) Clark, William
Review of The Global Biogeochemical Sulphur Cycle and The Major Biogeochemical Cycles And Their Interactions
(1984) Clark, William
The CO2 Question
(American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 1984-03-09) Clark, William; Marland, G