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The Methodology of Positive Policy Analysis
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010)
Policy analyses frequently clash. Their disagreements stem from many sources, such as models, empirical estimates, values, who should have standing, and weighting of different criteria. We provide a simple taxonomy of ...
Addressing Catastrophic Risks: Disparate Anatomies Require Tailored Therapies
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011)
Catastrophic risks differ in terms of their natural or human origins, their possible amplification by human behaviors, and the relationships between those who create the risks and those who suffer the losses. Given their ...
The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011)
We study the predictive power of approximately 2.5 million stock picks submitted by individual users to the “CAPS” website run by the Motley Fool company (www.caps.fool.com). These picks prove to be surprisingly informative ...
The Online Laboratory: Conducting Experiments in a Real Labor Market
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010)
Online labor markets have great potential as platforms for conducting experiments, as they provide immediate access to a large and diverse subject pool and allow researchers to conduct randomized controlled trials. We argue ...