HKS Faculty Scholarship

We identify employees at seven companies whose 401(k) investment choices are dominated because they are contributing less than the employer matching contribution threshold despite being vested in their match and being able to make penalty-free 401(k) withdrawals for any reason because they are older than 59½. At the average firm, 36% of match-eligible employees over age 59½ forgo arbitrage profits that average 1.6% of their annual pay, or $507. A survey educating employees about the free lunch they are forgoing raised contribution rates by a statistically insignificant 0.67% of income among those completing the survey.

Campaign staff, journalists, and political scientists commonly attribute the poor performances of a party's down-ballot candidates to low-quality or extreme top-of-the-ticket candidates, but empirical evidence on this conventional wisdom is scant. We estimate the effect of candidate quality and ideology in gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections on co-partisan vote shares in down-ballot U.S. House races. While naive estimates imply that top-of-the-ticket candidates influence down-ballot outcomes, after accounting for correlations in candidate quality/ideology across offices, we estimate near-zero statewide top-of-the-ticket effects on U.S. House elections. We similarly observe near-zero top-of-the-ticket effects in the further-down-ballot settings of state-legislative and county-legislative elections. Overall, voters exhibit a strong capacity to discern differences in quality and ideology across offices and incorporate this information into their vote choice throughout the time period under investigation. However, in line with other research, this link between candidate quality/ideology and election outcomes has weakened considerably in recent years.

Redistricting reformers have proposed many solutions to the problem of partisan gerrymandering, but they all require either bipartisan consensus or the agreement of both parties on the legitimacy of a neutral third party to resolve disputes. In this paper, we propose a new method for drawing district maps, the Define-Combine Procedure, that substantially reduces partisan gerrymandering without requiring a neutral third party or bipartisan agreement. One party defines a map of 2N equal-population contiguous districts. Then the second party combines pairs of contiguous districts to create the final map of N districts. Using real-world geographic and electoral data, we employ simulations and map-drawing algorithms to show that this procedure dramatically reduces the advantage conferred to the party controlling the redistricting process and leads to less-biased maps without requiring cooperation or non-partisan actors.

Despite growing investments in evidence-based policymaking, a significant gap remains between the production of policy-relevant research and the use of evidence to impact policy. This article argues that overcoming this production-adoption gap requires reconceptualizing evidence adoption as a series of behavioral and organizational hurdles that determine whether evidence is useful, usable, and, ultimately, used. Drawing on a large interdisciplinary literature, we develop a unified framework and highlight key gaps in our understanding of each of these critical stages for bringing evidence to scale. We conclude by outlining a research agenda for advancing our understanding why a production-adoption gap persists and knowledge of “what works” to increase evidence adoption – which, together, are essential for ensuring that the evidence-based policymaking movement meets its promise of improving societal outcomes.

This paper compares how the United States and the European Community dealt with competition policy challenges by two firms operating at the frontiers of technology: Microsoft and Intel. The U.S. Microsoft case was broadly targeted but largely unsuccessful in implementing remedies once violation was found. The European case was more narrowly focused, failing in its media player unbundling remedy but fighting hard to implement its interoperability information remedy. The European case on Intel was also tightly focused, leading to the highest damages judgment in E.C. competition policy history and a mandate to avoid quantity-linked rebates. The newest U.S. case regarding Intel is only in its early stages, but if its ambitious claim for remedies is sustained, difficult monitoring problems will be faced. The paper ends with critical comments on E.C. adjudication procedures.

In this paper, we analyze the incentives of an incumbent and an entrant to migrate from an "old" technology to a "new" technology, and discuss how the terms of wholesale access affect this migration. We show that a higher access charge on the legacy network pushes the entrant firm to invest more, but has an ambiguous effect on the incumbent's investments, due to two conflicting effects: the wholesale revenue effect, and the business migration effect. If both the old and the new infrastructures are subject to ex-ante access regulation, we also find that the two access charges are positively correlated.

Does access to 4-year colleges affect degree completion for students who would otherwise attend 2-year colleges? Admission to Georgia’s 4-year public sector requires minimum SAT scores. Regression discontinuity estimates show that access to this sector increases 4-year college enrollment and college quality, largely by diverting students from 2-year colleges. Access substantially increases bachelor’s degree completion rates for these relatively low-skilled students. SAT retaking behavior suggests students value access to 4-year public colleges, though perhaps less than they should. Our results imply that absolute college quality matters more than match quality, and they suggest potential unintended consequences of free community college proposals.

The United States spends substantially more on health care than most developed countries, yet leaves a greater share of the population uninsured. We suggest that incremental insurance expansions focused on addressing market failures will propagate inefficiencies and are not likely to facilitate active policy decisions that align with societal coverage goals. By instead defining a basic bundle of services that is publicly financed for all, while allowing individuals to purchase additional coverage, policymakers could both expand coverage and maintain incentives for innovation, fostering universal access to innovative care in an affordable system.

Canonical theories of representation emphasize that electoral incentives drive legislator behavior, yet empirical research, focusing primarily on member ideology, finds little evidence of member adaptation to electoral threat. We compile an expansive dataset measuring both district- and chamber-oriented activities, including new measures of member travel and geographically-targeted legislation. Using a within-member design, we find electorally threatened representatives spend more time in their districts, use more local phrases on the floor, secure more appropriations for constituents, serve on more constituency-oriented committees (and fewer policy-related committees), and sponsor fewer national policy-focused bills and amendments. Threatened members adapt by shifting focus from partisan policy work toward less-ideological constituent service, even as their voting records remain mostly stable. We argue electoral competition operates as a moderating force not by changing legislators' ideological positions but by reshaping how they budget time between competing representational activities.

Catastrophic risks differ in terms of their natural or human origins, their possible amplification by human behaviors, and the relationships between those who create the risks and those who suffer the losses. Given their disparate anatomies, catastrophic risks generally require tailored therapies, with each prescribed therapy employing a specific portfolio of policy strategies. Given that catastrophic risks occur rarely, and impose extreme losses, traditional mechanisms for controlling risks – bargaining, regulation, liability – often function poorly. Commons catastrophes arise when a group of actors collectively impose such risks on themselves. When the commons is balanced, that is, when the parties are roughly symmetrically situated, a range of regulatory mechanisms can perform well. However, unbalanced commons – such as exist with climate change – will challenge any control mechanism with the disparate parties putting forth proposals to limit their own burdens. When humans impose catastrophic risks predominantly on others – as with deepwater oil spills – the risks are external. For those risks, the analysis shows, a single responsible party should be identified. Primary emphasis should then be placed on a two-tier liability system. Parties engaged in activities posing such catastrophic risks would be subject to substantial minimum financial requirements, strict liability for all damages, and a risk-based tax for expected losses that would exceed the responsible party’s ability to pay. Utilizing the financial incentives of this two-tier liability system would decrease the current reliance on regulatory policy, and would alter the role of regulators with a tilt toward financial oversight efforts and away from direct control. Catastrophic risks will always be with us. But as rare, extreme events, society has little experience with them, and current mechanisms are poorly designed to control them. Only a tailored therapy approach offers promise of significant improvement.

We show that the effects of taxes on labor supply are shaped by interactions between adjustment costs for workers and hours constraints set by firms. We develop a model in which firms post job offers characterized by an hours requirement and workers pay search costs to find jobs. We present evidence supporting three predictions of this model by analyzing bunching at kinks using Danish tax records. First, larger kinks generate larger taxable income elasticities. Second, kinks that apply to a larger group of workers generate larger elasticities. Third, the distribution of job offers is tailored to match workers' aggregate tax preferences in equilibrium. Our results suggest that macro elasticities may be substantially larger than the estimates obtained using standard microeconometric methods.

The threat of nuclear and radiological terrorism has not disappeared, though the world has made important progress in reducing these risks. Urgent new steps are needed to build effective and lasting nuclear security worldwide. The nuclear security effort must now shift from short-term improvements toward a focus on a continued search for excellence, lasting as long as terrorist groups bent on mass destruction and the nuclear and radiological materials they might use both continue to exist.

Background: Adverse obstetric and neonatal outcomes among women with psychosis, particularly affective psychosis, has rarely been studied at the population level. We aimed to assess the risk of adverse obstetric and neonatal outcomes among women with psychosis (schizophrenia, affective psychosis, and other psychoses). Methods: From the 2007 – 2012 National (Nationwide) Inpatient Sample, 23,507,597 delivery hospitalizations were identified. From the same hospitalization, International Classification of Diseases diagnosis codes were used to identify maternal psychosis and outcomes. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained using logistic regression. Results: The prevalence of psychosis at delivery was 698.76 per 100,000 hospitalizations. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, smoking, alcohol/substance abuse, and pregnancy-related hypertension, women with psychosis were at a heightened risk for cesarean delivery (aOR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.23 - 1.29), induced labor (aOR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.09), antepartum hemorrhage (aOR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.14 - 1.31), placental abruption (aOR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.13 - 1.32), postpartum hemorrhage (aOR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.10 - 1.27), premature delivery (aOR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.36 - 1.46), stillbirth (aOR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.23 - 1.53), premature rupture of membranes (aOR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.15 - 1.29), fetal abnormalities (aOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.38 - 1.61), poor fetal growth (aOR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.19 - 1.34), and fetal distress (aOR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.10 - 1.18). Maternal death during hospitalizations (aOR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.30 - 3.31) and excessive fetal growth (aOR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.98 - 1.14) were not statistically significantly associated with psychosis. Conclusions: Pregnant women with psychosis have elevated risk of several adverse obstetric and neonatal outcomes. Efforts to identify and manage pregnancies complicated by psychosis may contribute to improved outcomes. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12884-018-1750-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Objective: The effects of suicidal behavior on obstetric outcomes remain dangerously unquantified. We sought to report on the risk of adverse obstetric outcomes for US women with suicidal behavior at the time of delivery. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of delivery hospitalizations from 2007–2012 National (Nationwide) Inpatient Sample. From the same hospitalization record, International Classification of Diseases codes were used to identify suicidal behavior and adverse obstetric outcomes. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained using logistic regression. Results: Of the 23,507,597 delivery hospitalizations, 2,180 were complicated by suicidal behavior. Women with suicidal behavior were at a heightened risk for outcomes including antepartum hemorrhage (aOR = 2.34; 95% CI: 1.47–3.74), placental abruption (aOR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.17–3.66), postpartum hemorrhage (aOR = 2.33; 95% CI: 1.61–3.37), premature delivery (aOR = 3.08; 95% CI: 2.43–3.90), stillbirth (aOR = 10.73; 95% CI: 7.41–15.56), poor fetal growth (aOR = 1.70; 95% CI: 1.10–2.62), and fetal anomalies (aOR = 3.72; 95% CI: 2.57–5.40). No significant association was observed for maternal suicidal behavior with cesarean delivery, induction of labor, premature rupture of membranes, excessive fetal growth, and fetal distress. The mean length of stay was longer for women with suicidal behavior. Conclusion: During delivery hospitalization, women with suicidal behavior are at increased risk for many adverse obstetric outcomes, highlighting the importance of screening for and providing appropriate clinical care for women with suicidal behavior during pregnancy.

Health plans for the poor increasingly limit access to specialty hospitals. We investigate the role of adverse selection in generating this equilibrium among private plans in Medicaid. Studying a network change, we find that covering a top cancer hospital causes severe adverse selection, increasing demand for a plan by 50% among enrollees with cancer versus no impact for others. Medicaid’s fixed insurer payments make offsetting this selection, and the contract distortions it induces, challenging, requiring either infeasibly high payment rates or near-perfect risk adjustment. By contrast, a small explicit bonus for covering the hospital is sufficient to make coverage profitable.